Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Next US strike on Syria on...?

December 19 100.0%

December 13 <1%

December 14 <1%

December 15 <1%

$1,107,488 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET).

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,107,488
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Dec 13, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any official Syrian embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Next US strike on Syria on...?

December 19 100.0%

December 13 <1%

December 14 <1%

December 15 <1%

$1,107,488 Vol.

December 13

$65,365 Vol.

No

December 14

$53,638 Vol.

No

December 15

$38,779 Vol.

No

December 16

$38,311 Vol.

No

December 17

$69,715 Vol.

No

December 18

$33,147 Vol.

No

December 19

$56,221 Vol.

Yes

December 20

$81,577 Vol.

No

December 21

$87,335 Vol.

No

December 22

$29,770 Vol.

No

December 23

$70,487 Vol.

No

December 24

$159,684 Vol.

No

December 25

$36,767 Vol.

No

December 26

$23,995 Vol.

No

December 27

$31,053 Vol.

No

December 28

$27,473 Vol.

No

December 29

$21,173 Vol.

No

December 30

$65,265 Vol.

No

December 31

$29,646 Vol.

No

No US strike on Syria in 2025

$88,090 Vol.

No

About

Volume
$1,107,488
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Created At
Dec 13, 2025, 4:25 PM ET

Beware of external links.