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Elections·Midterms

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Market icon
Elections·Midterms

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

$15,266 Vol.

Polymarket

$15,266 Vol.

Market icon

Democrat

$11,283 Vol.

89%

Market icon

Republican

$3,983 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With Tina Smith's retirement creating an open Minnesota Senate seat, trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 88.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's DFL dominance—no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early general election polls showing frontrunners Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading GOP hopefuls like Michele Tafoya by 4–7 points in February Emerson surveys. Recent Democratic primary polling reinforces Flanagan's edge over Craig (e.g., +13 in a GQR poll), bolstered by Smith's February endorsement, while the fragmented Republican field risks a weaker nominee ahead of the August 11 primaries. National midterm dynamics under a GOP president add uncertainty, but Minnesota's partisan lean and strong DFL turnout path sustain the lopsided odds.

With Tina Smith's retirement creating an open Minnesota Senate seat, trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 88.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's DFL dominance—no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early general election polls showing frontrunners Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading GOP hopefuls like Michele Tafoya by 4–7 points in February Emerson surveys. Recent Democratic primary polling reinforces Flanagan's edge over Craig (e.g., +13 in a GQR poll), bolstered by Smith's February endorsement, while the fragmented Republican field risks a weaker nominee ahead of the August 11 primaries. National midterm dynamics under a GOP president add uncertainty, but Minnesota's partisan lean and strong DFL turnout path sustain the lopsided odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With Tina Smith's retirement creating an open Minnesota Senate seat, trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 88.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's DFL dominance—no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early general election polls showing frontrunners Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading GOP hopefuls like Michele Tafoya by 4–7 points in February Emerson surveys. Recent Democratic primary polling reinforces Flanagan's edge over Craig (e.g., +13 in a GQR poll), bolstered by Smith's February endorsement, while the fragmented Republican field risks a weaker nominee ahead of the August 11 primaries. National midterm dynamics under a GOP president add uncertainty, but Minnesota's partisan lean and strong DFL turnout path sustain the lopsided odds.

With Tina Smith's retirement creating an open Minnesota Senate seat, trader consensus heavily favors Democrats at 88.5% implied probability, reflecting the state's DFL dominance—no Republican Senate win since 2002—and early general election polls showing frontrunners Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig leading GOP hopefuls like Michele Tafoya by 4–7 points in February Emerson surveys. Recent Democratic primary polling reinforces Flanagan's edge over Craig (e.g., +13 in a GQR poll), bolstered by Smith's February endorsement, while the fragmented Republican field risks a weaker nominee ahead of the August 11 primaries. National midterm dynamics under a GOP president add uncertainty, but Minnesota's partisan lean and strong DFL turnout path sustain the lopsided odds.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Minnesota Senate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrat" at 89%, followed by "Republican" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minnesota Senate Election Winner" has generated $15.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minnesota Senate Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minnesota Senate Election Winner" is "Democrat" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minnesota Senate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.