Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Market icon
Politics·Venezuela

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$871,897 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$871,897 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$363,731 Vol.

2%

June 30

$425,333 Vol.

39%

December 31

$82,833 Vol.

64%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly entrenched as Cuba's president and first secretary of the Communist Party, with no verified internal signals of leadership transition despite persistent economic crisis, widespread blackouts, and sporadic protests in October 2024 over power outages in Santiago de Cuba, which authorities swiftly suppressed through arrests and internet restrictions. Hurricane Rafael's late November landfall exacerbated shortages of food, fuel, and electricity, fueling public discontent but prompting no policy shifts or party dissent. Trader consensus reflects the regime's historical resilience to unrest, anchored by control over the National Assembly and security apparatus; upcoming routine sessions of the Assembly in December offer no catalysts for removal, barring unforeseen health events or elite fractures.

Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly entrenched as Cuba's president and first secretary of the Communist Party, with no verified internal signals of leadership transition despite persistent economic crisis, widespread blackouts, and sporadic protests in October 2024 over power outages in Santiago de Cuba, which authorities swiftly suppressed through arrests and internet restrictions. Hurricane Rafael's late November landfall exacerbated shortages of food, fuel, and electricity, fueling public discontent but prompting no policy shifts or party dissent. Trader consensus reflects the regime's historical resilience to unrest, anchored by control over the National Assembly and security apparatus; upcoming routine sessions of the Assembly in December offer no catalysts for removal, barring unforeseen health events or elite fractures.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly entrenched as Cuba's president and first secretary of the Communist Party, with no verified internal signals of leadership transition despite persistent economic crisis, widespread blackouts, and sporadic protests in October 2024 over power outages in Santiago de Cuba, which authorities swiftly suppressed through arrests and internet restrictions. Hurricane Rafael's late November landfall exacerbated shortages of food, fuel, and electricity, fueling public discontent but prompting no policy shifts or party dissent. Trader consensus reflects the regime's historical resilience to unrest, anchored by control over the National Assembly and security apparatus; upcoming routine sessions of the Assembly in December offer no catalysts for removal, barring unforeseen health events or elite fractures.

Miguel Díaz-Canel remains firmly entrenched as Cuba's president and first secretary of the Communist Party, with no verified internal signals of leadership transition despite persistent economic crisis, widespread blackouts, and sporadic protests in October 2024 over power outages in Santiago de Cuba, which authorities swiftly suppressed through arrests and internet restrictions. Hurricane Rafael's late November landfall exacerbated shortages of food, fuel, and electricity, fueling public discontent but prompting no policy shifts or party dissent. Trader consensus reflects the regime's historical resilience to unrest, anchored by control over the National Assembly and security apparatus; upcoming routine sessions of the Assembly in December offer no catalysts for removal, barring unforeseen health events or elite fractures.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 64%, followed by "June 30" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" has generated $871.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" is "December 31" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.