Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data and regional observations point to a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly hovering near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 1.25–1.29°C (46.6%) and >1.29°C (42.1%). A record-shattering mid-month heatwave across western North America—deemed virtually impossible without human-induced warming—elevated Northern Hemisphere land averages, while fading La Niña conditions transitioned to ENSO-neutral, stripping away prior cooling suppression seen in early 2026. Berkeley Earth and NOAA datasets for prior months averaged ~1.55°C, but final ocean adjustments and Arctic contributions introduce uncertainty. Copernicus' official bulletin, due early April, will clarify resolution amid inherent reanalysis variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMarch 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 43.0%
>1.29ºC 41.9%
1.20–1.24ºC 8%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.1%
$259,444 Vol.
$259,444 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
8%
1.25–1.29ºC
47%
>1.29ºC
42%
1.25–1.29ºC 43.0%
>1.29ºC 41.9%
1.20–1.24ºC 8%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.1%
$259,444 Vol.
$259,444 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$33,774 Vol.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$36,165 Vol.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$58,812 Vol.
2%
1.20–1.24ºC
$49,719 Vol.
8%
1.25–1.29ºC
$29,538 Vol.
47%
>1.29ºC
$51,443 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data and regional observations point to a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly hovering near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 1.25–1.29°C (46.6%) and >1.29°C (42.1%). A record-shattering mid-month heatwave across western North America—deemed virtually impossible without human-induced warming—elevated Northern Hemisphere land averages, while fading La Niña conditions transitioned to ENSO-neutral, stripping away prior cooling suppression seen in early 2026. Berkeley Earth and NOAA datasets for prior months averaged ~1.55°C, but final ocean adjustments and Arctic contributions introduce uncertainty. Copernicus' official bulletin, due early April, will clarify resolution amid inherent reanalysis variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$259,444End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data and regional observations point to a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly hovering near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 1.25–1.29°C (46.6%) and >1.29°C (42.1%). A record-shattering mid-month heatwave across western North America—deemed virtually impossible without human-induced warming—elevated Northern Hemisphere land averages, while fading La Niña conditions transitioned to ENSO-neutral, stripping away prior cooling suppression seen in early 2026. Berkeley Earth and NOAA datasets for prior months averaged ~1.55°C, but final ocean adjustments and Arctic contributions introduce uncertainty. Copernicus' official bulletin, due early April, will clarify resolution amid inherent reanalysis variability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$259,444End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data and regional observations point to a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly hovering near 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, fueling the razor-thin trader split between 1.25–1.29°C (46.6%) and >1.29°C (42.1%). A record-shattering mid-month heatwave across western North America—deemed virtually impossible without human-induced warming—elevated Northern Hemisphere land averages, while fading La Niña conditions transitioned to ENSO-neutral, stripping away prior cooling suppression seen in early 2026. Berkeley Earth and NOAA datasets for prior months averaged ~1.55°C, but final ocean adjustments and Arctic contributions introduce uncertainty. Copernicus' official bulletin, due early April, will clarify resolution amid inherent reanalysis variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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