Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying airburst events through mid-April despite heightened fireball activity. NASA's CNEOS fireball database logs recent U.S. events like the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt TNT) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both well below threshold amid an American Meteor Society-noted Q1 surge in brighter sporadic fireballs from Anthelion sources—though total energies remain modest and statistically unalarming. Sentry and ESA risk lists show negligible impact probabilities for 2026, underscoring robust near-Earth object tracking. Ongoing sensor networks could detect late-year risks, but historical infrequency (rarely 1+ per year) sustains No dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$145,359 Vol.
$145,359 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$145,359 Vol.
$145,359 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying airburst events through mid-April despite heightened fireball activity. NASA's CNEOS fireball database logs recent U.S. events like the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt TNT) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both well below threshold amid an American Meteor Society-noted Q1 surge in brighter sporadic fireballs from Anthelion sources—though total energies remain modest and statistically unalarming. Sentry and ESA risk lists show negligible impact probabilities for 2026, underscoring robust near-Earth object tracking. Ongoing sensor networks could detect late-year risks, but historical infrequency (rarely 1+ per year) sustains No dominance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$145,359End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying airburst events through mid-April despite heightened fireball activity. NASA's CNEOS fireball database logs recent U.S. events like the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt TNT) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both well below threshold amid an American Meteor Society-noted Q1 surge in brighter sporadic fireballs from Anthelion sources—though total energies remain modest and statistically unalarming. Sentry and ESA risk lists show negligible impact probabilities for 2026, underscoring robust near-Earth object tracking. Ongoing sensor networks could detect late-year risks, but historical infrequency (rarely 1+ per year) sustains No dominance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$145,359End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying airburst events through mid-April despite heightened fireball activity. NASA's CNEOS fireball database logs recent U.S. events like the March 17 Ohio bolide (0.25 kt TNT) and March 21 Houston event (0.026 kt), both well below threshold amid an American Meteor Society-noted Q1 surge in brighter sporadic fireballs from Anthelion sources—though total energies remain modest and statistically unalarming. Sentry and ESA risk lists show negligible impact probabilities for 2026, underscoring robust near-Earth object tracking. Ongoing sensor networks could detect late-year risks, but historical infrequency (rarely 1+ per year) sustains No dominance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions