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Politics·Tweet Markets

Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

Market icon
Politics·Tweet Markets

Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

Apr 10

Mar 31

Apr 3

Apr 7

Apr 10

5-9 49%

<5 30%

10-14 30%

15-19 26%

Polymarket
NEW

5-9 49%

<5 30%

10-14 30%

15-19 26%

Polymarket
NEW

<5

$0 Vol.

30%

5-9

$2 Vol.

33%

10-14

$0 Vol.

30%

15-19

$0 Vol.

26%

20-24

$0 Vol.

15%

25-29

$0 Vol.

15%

30-34

$0 Vol.

13%

35-39

$31 Vol.

7%

40-44

$31 Vol.

7%

45-49

$31 Vol.

7%

50-54

$31 Vol.

7%

55-59

$31 Vol.

7%

60+

$31 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$186
End Date
Apr 10, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://x.com/khamenei_ir

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$186
End Date
Apr 10, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 12:01 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://x.com/khamenei_ir

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

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Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?

36%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "5-9" at 33%, followed by "<5" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?" is "5-9" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<5" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Khamenei # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.