Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Name: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
Start: 2026-01-04T19:58:13.925Z
End: 2026-05-14T00:00:00.000Z

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? — Discussion

Svitovid · 2026-01-04T19:58:13.925Z

Discussion about Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?. Traders share insights and predictions on Polymarket.

Politics·Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$1,757,212 Vol.

May 14, 2026

March 31

$929,994 Vol.

<1%

May 14

$827,218 Vol.

$1,757,212 Vol.

March 31

$929,994 Vol.

<1%

May 14

$827,218 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

President-elect Trump's election victory and past criticisms of Jerome Powell have intensified speculation about the Fed Chair's tenure, which extends until May 2026, amid questions over Federal Reserve independence. Removal requires "for cause" under statute, a high bar historically unmet, as Powell recently reaffirmed in speeches emphasizing the Fed's apolitical mandate. Traders weigh Trump's potential executive actions, like demoting Powell or nominating a replacement such as Kevin Warsh for Senate confirmation, against legal hurdles and market backlash risks. Key upcoming catalysts include Trump transition announcements, January 2025 inauguration, and the Fed's December FOMC meeting, where policy signals could influence replacement timing.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 26, 2026, 6:10 AM UTC

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

68%

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

100%

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 14" at 2%, followed by "March 31" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" is "May 14" at just 2%, with "March 31" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.8 million traded on “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 2¢ for "May 14" in the "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 2% chance that "May 14" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 2¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 98¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 14, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?" market has an active community of 36 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

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