Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?

Market icon

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$368,174 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$368,174 Vol.

President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$368,174
End Date
Feb 15, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 10, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$368,174
End Date
Feb 15, 2025
Market Opened
Feb 10, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?" has generated $368.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.