Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?

Market icon

Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$1,122,140 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$1,122,140 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 15, and June 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 15 and June 30, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Volume
$1,122,140
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 15, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 15, and June 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 15 and June 30, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 15, and June 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 15 and June 30, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.
Volume
$1,122,140
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 15, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran and Israel that begins at any time between June 15, and June 30, 2025, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between June 15 and June 30, 2025 ET (inclusive), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran or Israel against the other’s soil, airspace, maritime territory, or official Israeli embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not qualify.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.