Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have seen Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly conduct direct attacks on commercial vessels attempting passage without permission, with the most recent incident on March 27 involving a Thai cargo ship running aground off Qeshm Island, leaving three sailors missing. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate strikes on at least two civilian ships around March 24 as apparent war crimes, amid IRGC declarations closing the strait to hostile shipping and threats to expand disruptions to Red Sea routes if the US escalates. Since early March, over two dozen vessels have faced incidents, including suicide boat rammings and missile fire, suppressing global oil transit while US naval actions, such as sinking an Iranian vessel, heighten risks of retaliation or coalition intervention. Traders monitor for confirmed successful targeting—defined as verifiable hits causing significant damage—against a backdrop of diplomatic posturing and potential military responses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$86,576 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
1%
March 27
5%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$86,576 Vol.
March 25
$30,543 Vol.
1%
March 26
$5,940 Vol.
1%
March 27
$19,143 Vol.
5%
March 28
$6,836 Vol.
2%
March 29
$7,563 Vol.
5%
March 30
$7,953 Vol.
7%
March 31
$689 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have seen Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly conduct direct attacks on commercial vessels attempting passage without permission, with the most recent incident on March 27 involving a Thai cargo ship running aground off Qeshm Island, leaving three sailors missing. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate strikes on at least two civilian ships around March 24 as apparent war crimes, amid IRGC declarations closing the strait to hostile shipping and threats to expand disruptions to Red Sea routes if the US escalates. Since early March, over two dozen vessels have faced incidents, including suicide boat rammings and missile fire, suppressing global oil transit while US naval actions, such as sinking an Iranian vessel, heighten risks of retaliation or coalition intervention. Traders monitor for confirmed successful targeting—defined as verifiable hits causing significant damage—against a backdrop of diplomatic posturing and potential military responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$86,576End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have seen Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly conduct direct attacks on commercial vessels attempting passage without permission, with the most recent incident on March 27 involving a Thai cargo ship running aground off Qeshm Island, leaving three sailors missing. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate strikes on at least two civilian ships around March 24 as apparent war crimes, amid IRGC declarations closing the strait to hostile shipping and threats to expand disruptions to Red Sea routes if the US escalates. Since early March, over two dozen vessels have faced incidents, including suicide boat rammings and missile fire, suppressing global oil transit while US naval actions, such as sinking an Iranian vessel, heighten risks of retaliation or coalition intervention. Traders monitor for confirmed successful targeting—defined as verifiable hits causing significant damage—against a backdrop of diplomatic posturing and potential military responses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$86,576End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have seen Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reportedly conduct direct attacks on commercial vessels attempting passage without permission, with the most recent incident on March 27 involving a Thai cargo ship running aground off Qeshm Island, leaving three sailors missing. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate strikes on at least two civilian ships around March 24 as apparent war crimes, amid IRGC declarations closing the strait to hostile shipping and threats to expand disruptions to Red Sea routes if the US escalates. Since early March, over two dozen vessels have faced incidents, including suicide boat rammings and missile fire, suppressing global oil transit while US naval actions, such as sinking an Iranian vessel, heighten risks of retaliation or coalition intervention. Traders monitor for confirmed successful targeting—defined as verifiable hits causing significant damage—against a backdrop of diplomatic posturing and potential military responses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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