Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war that intensified in early March 2026, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone barrages directly at Israel, including cluster munitions on March 24 causing civilian terror and widespread damage reported two days ago, prompting Israel's fresh airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites as recently as 12 hours ago. Iran continues retaliatory strikes on US-allied positions while issuing threats against American troops and bases in the region, as noted yesterday. Diplomatic signals include Iran reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, with President Trump extending a deadline amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading Iranian capabilities. Traders weigh ongoing tit-for-tat escalation, negotiation prospects, and potential for broader targets like UAE facilities before the April 30 resolution, reflecting high uncertainty in de-escalation paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$119,480 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
Kuwait
93%
UAE
91%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Oman
47%
Lebanon
27%
Yemen
21%
Syria
29%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
7%
UK
5%
India
4%
Poland
4%
Germany
4%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
2%
Georgia
2%
Spain
2%
Ukraine
2%
Armenia
2%
$119,480 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,750 Vol.
97%
Kuwait
$1,057 Vol.
93%
UAE
$550 Vol.
91%
Qatar
$280 Vol.
60%
Iraq
$235 Vol.
42%
Oman
$1,859 Vol.
47%
Lebanon
$795 Vol.
27%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
29%
Azerbaijan
$543 Vol.
10%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,593 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
4%
Poland
$22,633 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,233 Vol.
4%
Italy
$100 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$9,644 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war that intensified in early March 2026, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone barrages directly at Israel, including cluster munitions on March 24 causing civilian terror and widespread damage reported two days ago, prompting Israel's fresh airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites as recently as 12 hours ago. Iran continues retaliatory strikes on US-allied positions while issuing threats against American troops and bases in the region, as noted yesterday. Diplomatic signals include Iran reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, with President Trump extending a deadline amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading Iranian capabilities. Traders weigh ongoing tit-for-tat escalation, negotiation prospects, and potential for broader targets like UAE facilities before the April 30 resolution, reflecting high uncertainty in de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$119,480End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war that intensified in early March 2026, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone barrages directly at Israel, including cluster munitions on March 24 causing civilian terror and widespread damage reported two days ago, prompting Israel's fresh airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites as recently as 12 hours ago. Iran continues retaliatory strikes on US-allied positions while issuing threats against American troops and bases in the region, as noted yesterday. Diplomatic signals include Iran reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, with President Trump extending a deadline amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading Iranian capabilities. Traders weigh ongoing tit-for-tat escalation, negotiation prospects, and potential for broader targets like UAE facilities before the April 30 resolution, reflecting high uncertainty in de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$119,480End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Amid the escalating US-Israel-Iran war that intensified in early March 2026, Iran has launched multiple missile and drone barrages directly at Israel, including cluster munitions on March 24 causing civilian terror and widespread damage reported two days ago, prompting Israel's fresh airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and industrial sites as recently as 12 hours ago. Iran continues retaliatory strikes on US-allied positions while issuing threats against American troops and bases in the region, as noted yesterday. Diplomatic signals include Iran reviewing a US-mediated proposal to halt hostilities, with President Trump extending a deadline amid over 10,000 US strikes degrading Iranian capabilities. Traders weigh ongoing tit-for-tat escalation, negotiation prospects, and potential for broader targets like UAE facilities before the April 30 resolution, reflecting high uncertainty in de-escalation paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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