Storm Prediction Center preliminary data and National Weather Service surveys confirm 186 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. in March 2026—well above the 150 threshold dominating trader sentiment at 99.4% implied probability—driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks from March 5–26. Repeated surges of warm, humid Gulf air into the Midwest and South clashed with cold fronts under strong wind shear and high instability, spawning supercells that produced EF0–EF3 tornadoes, including deadly EF3s in Michigan and Illinois. This exceeds the 1991–2020 March climatological average of about 80 tornadoes. While final National Centers for Environmental Information counts, due April 8, could trim numbers (historically ~65% of reports confirm), the margin makes a drop below 150 unlikely barring major revisions. Traders anticipate resolution favoring 150+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in March?
How many Tornadoes in the US in March?
150+ 99.3%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$180,146 Vol.
$180,146 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
<1%
150+
99%
150+ 99.3%
130–149 <1%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$180,146 Vol.
$180,146 Vol.
Apr 10, 2026
<70
$25,180 Vol.
<1%
70–99
$22,919 Vol.
<1%
100–129
$41,064 Vol.
<1%
130–149
$38,199 Vol.
<1%
150+
$52,784 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Storm Prediction Center preliminary data and National Weather Service surveys confirm 186 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. in March 2026—well above the 150 threshold dominating trader sentiment at 99.4% implied probability—driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks from March 5–26. Repeated surges of warm, humid Gulf air into the Midwest and South clashed with cold fronts under strong wind shear and high instability, spawning supercells that produced EF0–EF3 tornadoes, including deadly EF3s in Michigan and Illinois. This exceeds the 1991–2020 March climatological average of about 80 tornadoes. While final National Centers for Environmental Information counts, due April 8, could trim numbers (historically ~65% of reports confirm), the margin makes a drop below 150 unlikely barring major revisions. Traders anticipate resolution favoring 150+.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$180,146End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Storm Prediction Center preliminary data and National Weather Service surveys confirm 186 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. in March 2026—well above the 150 threshold dominating trader sentiment at 99.4% implied probability—driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks from March 5–26. Repeated surges of warm, humid Gulf air into the Midwest and South clashed with cold fronts under strong wind shear and high instability, spawning supercells that produced EF0–EF3 tornadoes, including deadly EF3s in Michigan and Illinois. This exceeds the 1991–2020 March climatological average of about 80 tornadoes. While final National Centers for Environmental Information counts, due April 8, could trim numbers (historically ~65% of reports confirm), the margin makes a drop below 150 unlikely barring major revisions. Traders anticipate resolution favoring 150+.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$180,146End Date
Apr 10, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Storm Prediction Center preliminary data and National Weather Service surveys confirm 186 tornadoes across the contiguous U.S. in March 2026—well above the 150 threshold dominating trader sentiment at 99.4% implied probability—driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks from March 5–26. Repeated surges of warm, humid Gulf air into the Midwest and South clashed with cold fronts under strong wind shear and high instability, spawning supercells that produced EF0–EF3 tornadoes, including deadly EF3s in Michigan and Illinois. This exceeds the 1991–2020 March climatological average of about 80 tornadoes. While final National Centers for Environmental Information counts, due April 8, could trim numbers (historically ~65% of reports confirm), the margin makes a drop below 150 unlikely barring major revisions. Traders anticipate resolution favoring 150+.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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