Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one (44%) and two (39%) Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries, reflecting uncertainty after Texas Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton following a weak March 3 first-round performance where no candidate cleared 50%. This signals base dissatisfaction with establishment figures amid the Trump administration's early agenda struggles, boosting challengers in states like South Carolina where Sen. Lindsey Graham faces Paul Dans and Louisiana where Sen. Bill Cassidy contends with intra-party pressure. With zero losses so far across early primaries in Texas, North Carolina (open after Thom Tillis's retirement), and Arkansas, the tight race hinges on Texas runoff dynamics and later contests in June primaries; strong turnout for insurgents could push toward two defeats, while incumbency advantages maintain balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2 39%
1 22%
0 12%
3 6.0%
NEW
NEW
0
23%
1
44%
2
39%
3
15%
4
6%
>4
4%
2 39%
1 22%
0 12%
3 6.0%
NEW
NEW
0
$0 Vol.
23%
1
$0 Vol.
44%
2
$0 Vol.
39%
3
$0 Vol.
15%
4
$0 Vol.
6%
>4
$0 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one (44%) and two (39%) Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries, reflecting uncertainty after Texas Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton following a weak March 3 first-round performance where no candidate cleared 50%. This signals base dissatisfaction with establishment figures amid the Trump administration's early agenda struggles, boosting challengers in states like South Carolina where Sen. Lindsey Graham faces Paul Dans and Louisiana where Sen. Bill Cassidy contends with intra-party pressure. With zero losses so far across early primaries in Texas, North Carolina (open after Thom Tillis's retirement), and Arkansas, the tight race hinges on Texas runoff dynamics and later contests in June primaries; strong turnout for insurgents could push toward two defeats, while incumbency advantages maintain balance.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$0Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one (44%) and two (39%) Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries, reflecting uncertainty after Texas Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton following a weak March 3 first-round performance where no candidate cleared 50%. This signals base dissatisfaction with establishment figures amid the Trump administration's early agenda struggles, boosting challengers in states like South Carolina where Sen. Lindsey Graham faces Paul Dans and Louisiana where Sen. Bill Cassidy contends with intra-party pressure. With zero losses so far across early primaries in Texas, North Carolina (open after Thom Tillis's retirement), and Arkansas, the tight race hinges on Texas runoff dynamics and later contests in June primaries; strong turnout for insurgents could push toward two defeats, while incumbency advantages maintain balance.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$0Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between one (44%) and two (39%) Republican Senate incumbents failing to win their primaries, reflecting uncertainty after Texas Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May runoff against Attorney General Ken Paxton following a weak March 3 first-round performance where no candidate cleared 50%. This signals base dissatisfaction with establishment figures amid the Trump administration's early agenda struggles, boosting challengers in states like South Carolina where Sen. Lindsey Graham faces Paul Dans and Louisiana where Sen. Bill Cassidy contends with intra-party pressure. With zero losses so far across early primaries in Texas, North Carolina (open after Thom Tillis's retirement), and Arkansas, the tight race hinges on Texas runoff dynamics and later contests in June primaries; strong turnout for insurgents could push toward two defeats, while incumbency advantages maintain balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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