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Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

16°C 42%

17°C or higher 30%

15°C 18%

14°C 6%

Polymarket

$39,061 Vol.

16°C 42%

17°C or higher 30%

15°C 18%

14°C 6%

Polymarket

$39,061 Vol.

7°C or below

$7,512 Vol.

<1%

8°C

$3,379 Vol.

<1%

9°C

$3,407 Vol.

<1%

10°C

$2,206 Vol.

<1%

11°C

$3,781 Vol.

1%

12°C

$2,374 Vol.

1%

13°C

$3,580 Vol.

2%

14°C

$3,476 Vol.

6%

15°C

$3,160 Vol.

18%

16°C

$2,544 Vol.

42%

17°C or higher

$3,756 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest IMGW-PIB and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 centering around 15-16°C, positioning 16°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 42% trader consensus amid mild southerly flows ushering warmer air masses into central Poland. This reflects a warmer-than-average late March trend, exceeding historical norms of 9-12°C by 3-5°C, with stable high-pressure influences reducing cloud cover risks despite scattered showers in recent IMGW synoptic updates through March 29. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with 17°C or higher at 29.5% capturing upside potential from intensification, while 15°C trails at 17%; key updates from today's 12Z global model runs and afternoon observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport could refine these probabilities before resolution.

Latest IMGW-PIB and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 centering around 15-16°C, positioning 16°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 42% trader consensus amid mild southerly flows ushering warmer air masses into central Poland. This reflects a warmer-than-average late March trend, exceeding historical norms of 9-12°C by 3-5°C, with stable high-pressure influences reducing cloud cover risks despite scattered showers in recent IMGW synoptic updates through March 29. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with 17°C or higher at 29.5% capturing upside potential from intensification, while 15°C trails at 17%; key updates from today's 12Z global model runs and afternoon observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport could refine these probabilities before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest IMGW-PIB and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 centering around 15-16°C, positioning 16°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 42% trader consensus amid mild southerly flows ushering warmer air masses into central Poland. This reflects a warmer-than-average late March trend, exceeding historical norms of 9-12°C by 3-5°C, with stable high-pressure influences reducing cloud cover risks despite scattered showers in recent IMGW synoptic updates through March 29. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with 17°C or higher at 29.5% capturing upside potential from intensification, while 15°C trails at 17%; key updates from today's 12Z global model runs and afternoon observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport could refine these probabilities before resolution.

Latest IMGW-PIB and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Warsaw's highest temperature on March 29 centering around 15-16°C, positioning 16°C as the market-implied frontrunner at 42% trader consensus amid mild southerly flows ushering warmer air masses into central Poland. This reflects a warmer-than-average late March trend, exceeding historical norms of 9-12°C by 3-5°C, with stable high-pressure influences reducing cloud cover risks despite scattered showers in recent IMGW synoptic updates through March 29. Model spread introduces uncertainty, with 17°C or higher at 29.5% capturing upside potential from intensification, while 15°C trails at 17%; key updates from today's 12Z global model runs and afternoon observations at Warsaw Chopin Airport could refine these probabilities before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "16°C" at 42%, followed by "17°C or higher" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?" has generated $39.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?" is "16°C" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17°C or higher" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.