Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model agreement for Dallas' highest temperature on March 26, with the National Weather Service projecting around 87°F amid a strong upper-level ridge over the southern Plains promoting subsidence warming and dry conditions. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles center outcomes between 86-89°F, explaining the near-even split (35% for 86-87°F, 32.5% for 88-89°F), while lower probabilities for cooler bins (e.g., 18.5% at 84-85°F) stem from minimal cloud interference risks and persistent southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture minimally. This setup is highly anomalous for late March—Dallas' climatological average high is 67°F—with potential to challenge daily records near 90°F. New 12Z model runs and afternoon sounding data could sharpen these market-implied odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 26?
86-87°F 38%
88-89°F 32%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 10%
$26,724 Vol.
$26,724 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 38%
88-89°F 32%
84-85°F 18%
90-91°F 10%
$26,724 Vol.
$26,724 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
32%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model agreement for Dallas' highest temperature on March 26, with the National Weather Service projecting around 87°F amid a strong upper-level ridge over the southern Plains promoting subsidence warming and dry conditions. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles center outcomes between 86-89°F, explaining the near-even split (35% for 86-87°F, 32.5% for 88-89°F), while lower probabilities for cooler bins (e.g., 18.5% at 84-85°F) stem from minimal cloud interference risks and persistent southerly flow advecting Gulf moisture minimally. This setup is highly anomalous for late March—Dallas' climatological average high is 67°F—with potential to challenge daily records near 90°F. New 12Z model runs and afternoon sounding data could sharpen these market-implied odds further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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