Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to an 18°C high temperature in Beijing on March 30, 2026, driven by the latest observational data and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration's World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a daytime peak of precisely 18°C under overcast skies and light southerly winds. Morning readings around 14°C at Beijing Capital International Airport— the market's resolution site—align with a standard diurnal heating cycle amid stable high-pressure influence and low atmospheric shear, minimizing deviations from historical late-March averages near 14°C. While dense cloud cover could cap peaks at 17°C or brief clearing push to 19°C, end-of-day station measurements have solidified this outcome, with no realistic scenarios left to challenge it as the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on March 30?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 30?
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$140,747 Vol.
$140,747 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$140,747 Vol.
$140,747 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:40 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to an 18°C high temperature in Beijing on March 30, 2026, driven by the latest observational data and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration's World Meteorological Centre Beijing, which project a daytime peak of precisely 18°C under overcast skies and light southerly winds. Morning readings around 14°C at Beijing Capital International Airport— the market's resolution site—align with a standard diurnal heating cycle amid stable high-pressure influence and low atmospheric shear, minimizing deviations from historical late-March averages near 14°C. While dense cloud cover could cap peaks at 17°C or brief clearing push to 19°C, end-of-day station measurements have solidified this outcome, with no realistic scenarios left to challenge it as the resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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