Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Gulf State military action against Iran by April 30, 2026, at under 1% implied probability, reflecting the absence of confirmed drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil despite over 2,000 Iranian retaliatory attacks on GCC infrastructure—UAE absorbing 90%—since the US-Iran war escalated in March. GCC leaders, convening in Jeddah late April, urged faster military integration and US pressure on Tehran but prioritized diplomacy amid eroded trust and Strait of Hormuz risks, with UAE criticizing the bloc's "weakest" response. Disputed April 8 strikes on Iranian islands lack attribution consensus for resolution. Brent crude eased to $108/barrel from $126 peaks, decoupling GCC equities from oil windfalls via risk premia; fragile ceasefire and US-Iran talks loom as catalysts.