Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%-1.8% range at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's recent deceleration after Q4 2025 expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter amid persistently high Selic rates at 15%. This aligns with the Central Bank of Brazil's 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast, unchanged despite Middle East tensions, and Finance Minister Haddad's view of up to 1% Q1 growth conditional on easing rates. The <0.7% outcome at 19% captures downside risks from tight monetary policy curbing services and consumption, while higher bins trail due to moderating inflation and agriculture tailwinds. Traders eye upcoming IBGE Q1 data release in late April for resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
19%
0.7%–1.0%
10%
1.1%–1.4%
11%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
14%
2.3%–2.6%
14%
≥2.7%
10%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,163 Vol.
19%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 Vol.
10%
1.1%–1.4%
$5 Vol.
11%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 Vol.
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 Vol.
14%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 Vol.
14%
≥2.7%
$1,161 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%-1.8% range at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's recent deceleration after Q4 2025 expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter amid persistently high Selic rates at 15%. This aligns with the Central Bank of Brazil's 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast, unchanged despite Middle East tensions, and Finance Minister Haddad's view of up to 1% Q1 growth conditional on easing rates. The <0.7% outcome at 19% captures downside risks from tight monetary policy curbing services and consumption, while higher bins trail due to moderating inflation and agriculture tailwinds. Traders eye upcoming IBGE Q1 data release in late April for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$14,638End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%-1.8% range at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's recent deceleration after Q4 2025 expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter amid persistently high Selic rates at 15%. This aligns with the Central Bank of Brazil's 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast, unchanged despite Middle East tensions, and Finance Minister Haddad's view of up to 1% Q1 growth conditional on easing rates. The <0.7% outcome at 19% captures downside risks from tight monetary policy curbing services and consumption, while higher bins trail due to moderating inflation and agriculture tailwinds. Traders eye upcoming IBGE Q1 data release in late April for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$14,638End Date
May 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.5%-1.8% range at 36.5% implied probability, reflecting the economy's recent deceleration after Q4 2025 expanded just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter amid persistently high Selic rates at 15%. This aligns with the Central Bank of Brazil's 1.6% full-year 2026 forecast, unchanged despite Middle East tensions, and Finance Minister Haddad's view of up to 1% Q1 growth conditional on easing rates. The <0.7% outcome at 19% captures downside risks from tight monetary policy curbing services and consumption, while higher bins trail due to moderating inflation and agriculture tailwinds. Traders eye upcoming IBGE Q1 data release in late April for resolution clarity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
56%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
37%
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