Traders heavily favor no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96% implied probability), driven by credible reports targeting a Q4 debut—potentially as early as October—after the Claude AI developer hired law firm Wilson Sonsini for groundwork and engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a possible $60 billion raise at $300–800 billion valuations. Surging annualized revenue to $30 billion from Claude large language models, plus rejected private offers signaling control over timing, reinforce this consensus amid a frothy AI sector where OpenAI and others eye similar late-2026 listings. Realistic challenges include accelerated S-1 filing due to competitive pressures, favorable regulatory shifts, or explosive model benchmarks like Opus 4.7 prompting earlier public markets access, though historical IPO timelines for frontier AI labs suggest delays remain likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 96.0%
400–600B 1.8%
600B+ 1.6%
100–200B <1%
$1,023,429 Vol.
$1,023,429 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
<1%
400–600B
2%
600B+
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
96%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 96.0%
400–600B 1.8%
600B+ 1.6%
100–200B <1%
$1,023,429 Vol.
$1,023,429 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$210,689 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$71,819 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$126,479 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$75,259 Vol.
<1%
400–600B
$119,995 Vol.
2%
600B+
$242,037 Vol.
2%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$177,152 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders heavily favor no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96% implied probability), driven by credible reports targeting a Q4 debut—potentially as early as October—after the Claude AI developer hired law firm Wilson Sonsini for groundwork and engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a possible $60 billion raise at $300–800 billion valuations. Surging annualized revenue to $30 billion from Claude large language models, plus rejected private offers signaling control over timing, reinforce this consensus amid a frothy AI sector where OpenAI and others eye similar late-2026 listings. Realistic challenges include accelerated S-1 filing due to competitive pressures, favorable regulatory shifts, or explosive model benchmarks like Opus 4.7 prompting earlier public markets access, though historical IPO timelines for frontier AI labs suggest delays remain likely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,023,429End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders heavily favor no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96% implied probability), driven by credible reports targeting a Q4 debut—potentially as early as October—after the Claude AI developer hired law firm Wilson Sonsini for groundwork and engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a possible $60 billion raise at $300–800 billion valuations. Surging annualized revenue to $30 billion from Claude large language models, plus rejected private offers signaling control over timing, reinforce this consensus amid a frothy AI sector where OpenAI and others eye similar late-2026 listings. Realistic challenges include accelerated S-1 filing due to competitive pressures, favorable regulatory shifts, or explosive model benchmarks like Opus 4.7 prompting earlier public markets access, though historical IPO timelines for frontier AI labs suggest delays remain likely.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,023,429End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (96% implied probability), driven by credible reports targeting a Q4 debut—potentially as early as October—after the Claude AI developer hired law firm Wilson Sonsini for groundwork and engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan for a possible $60 billion raise at $300–800 billion valuations. Surging annualized revenue to $30 billion from Claude large language models, plus rejected private offers signaling control over timing, reinforce this consensus amid a frothy AI sector where OpenAI and others eye similar late-2026 listings. Realistic challenges include accelerated S-1 filing due to competitive pressures, favorable regulatory shifts, or explosive model benchmarks like Opus 4.7 prompting earlier public markets access, though historical IPO timelines for frontier AI labs suggest delays remain likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions