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#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?

Market icon

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?

ChatGPT 100.0%

Threads <1%

Google <1%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire <1%

Polymarket

$21,088 Vol.

ChatGPT 100.0%

Threads <1%

Google <1%

Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire <1%

Polymarket

$21,088 Vol.

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Threads

$803 Vol.

No

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Google

$1,527 Vol.

No

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Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire

$939 Vol.

No

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NCAA March Madness Live

$796 Vol.

No

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ChatGPT

$11,299 Vol.

Yes

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Google Gemini

$1,597 Vol.

No

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MLB

$1,490 Vol.

No

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Claude by Anthropic

$1,939 Vol.

No

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MyTSA

$699 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT commands a near-unanimous 100% implied probability as the top free iPhone app in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its entrenched dominance in real-time charts from Appfigures and Sensor Tower, where it leads ahead of Claude by Anthropic at #2. OpenAI's large language model updates, superior image generation, and cross-device history sync sustain massive daily downloads, outpacing competitors despite Claude's early March surge from Opus 4.6 benchmark wins and ethical AI buzz. Trader consensus, backed by skin-in-the-game wagers, anticipates no late-day shift, though a viral competitor update—like NCAA March Madness Live or Temu—or download spike could challenge before 11:59 PM ET resolution.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$21,088
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT commands a near-unanimous 100% implied probability as the top free iPhone app in the US Apple App Store on March 31, reflecting its entrenched dominance in real-time charts from Appfigures and Sensor Tower, where it leads ahead of Claude by Anthropic at #2. OpenAI's large language model updates, superior image generation, and cross-device history sync sustain massive daily downloads, outpacing competitors despite Claude's early March surge from Opus 4.6 benchmark wins and ethical AI buzz. Trader consensus, backed by skin-in-the-game wagers, anticipates no late-day shift, though a viral competitor update—like NCAA March Madness Live or Temu—or download spike could challenge before 11:59 PM ET resolution.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$21,088
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 100%, followed by "Threads" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" has generated $21.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" is "ChatGPT" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Threads" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.