Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With A Smile" debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, driven by the year's biggest streaming and sales start, handing both artists a 2024 chart-topper amid massive radio and social buzz. This caps a dynamic year already featuring #1s from Kendrick Lamar's feud-fueled "Not Like Us," Shaboozey's record 16-week "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" reign, Sabrina Carpenter's "Please Please Please," Post Malone's country crossover "I Had Some Help," and others like Taylor Swift's "Fortnight." With 10 weeks left, trader consensus tracks surprise drops, viral streaming surges, and promo pushes from contenders like Billie Eilish or Drake, with weekly chart freezes as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
$44,437 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Mariah Carey
90%
Drake
78%
Olivia Rodrigo
89%
Billie Eilish
48%
SZA
50%
Luke Combs
39%
Post Malone
37%
The Weeknd
21%
Tyler, The Creator
28%
Doja Cat
28%
Kanye West
39%
Zach Bryan
26%
Rihanna
21%
Lil Baby
11%
A$AP Rocky
29%
Ed Sheeran
9%
Travis Scott
25%
Jack Harlow
22%
Kendrick Lamar
14%
Frank Ocean
26%
Playboi Carti
38%
Ariana Grande
53%
Future
47%
Morgan Wallen
52%
Peso Pluma
49%
Sabrina Carpenter
43%
$44,437 Vol.
Mariah Carey
$0 Vol.
90%
Drake
$0 Vol.
78%
Olivia Rodrigo
$0 Vol.
89%
Billie Eilish
$0 Vol.
48%
SZA
$0 Vol.
50%
Luke Combs
$0 Vol.
39%
Post Malone
$0 Vol.
37%
The Weeknd
$0 Vol.
21%
Tyler, The Creator
$0 Vol.
28%
Doja Cat
$0 Vol.
28%
Kanye West
$596 Vol.
39%
Zach Bryan
$0 Vol.
26%
Rihanna
$0 Vol.
21%
Lil Baby
$0 Vol.
11%
A$AP Rocky
$0 Vol.
29%
Ed Sheeran
$0 Vol.
9%
Travis Scott
$0 Vol.
25%
Jack Harlow
$0 Vol.
22%
Kendrick Lamar
$0 Vol.
14%
Frank Ocean
$0 Vol.
26%
Playboi Carti
$7,361 Vol.
38%
Ariana Grande
$83 Vol.
53%
Future
$0 Vol.
47%
Morgan Wallen
$0 Vol.
52%
Peso Pluma
$0 Vol.
49%
Sabrina Carpenter
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With A Smile" debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, driven by the year's biggest streaming and sales start, handing both artists a 2024 chart-topper amid massive radio and social buzz. This caps a dynamic year already featuring #1s from Kendrick Lamar's feud-fueled "Not Like Us," Shaboozey's record 16-week "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" reign, Sabrina Carpenter's "Please Please Please," Post Malone's country crossover "I Had Some Help," and others like Taylor Swift's "Fortnight." With 10 weeks left, trader consensus tracks surprise drops, viral streaming surges, and promo pushes from contenders like Billie Eilish or Drake, with weekly chart freezes as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Market Opened: Jan 9, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$44,437End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 9, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With A Smile" debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, driven by the year's biggest streaming and sales start, handing both artists a 2024 chart-topper amid massive radio and social buzz. This caps a dynamic year already featuring #1s from Kendrick Lamar's feud-fueled "Not Like Us," Shaboozey's record 16-week "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" reign, Sabrina Carpenter's "Please Please Please," Post Malone's country crossover "I Had Some Help," and others like Taylor Swift's "Fortnight." With 10 weeks left, trader consensus tracks surprise drops, viral streaming surges, and promo pushes from contenders like Billie Eilish or Drake, with weekly chart freezes as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.
Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.
Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Volume
$44,437End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 9, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars' "Die With A Smile" debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, driven by the year's biggest streaming and sales start, handing both artists a 2024 chart-topper amid massive radio and social buzz. This caps a dynamic year already featuring #1s from Kendrick Lamar's feud-fueled "Not Like Us," Shaboozey's record 16-week "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" reign, Sabrina Carpenter's "Please Please Please," Post Malone's country crossover "I Had Some Help," and others like Taylor Swift's "Fortnight." With 10 weeks left, trader consensus tracks surprise drops, viral streaming surges, and promo pushes from contenders like Billie Eilish or Drake, with weekly chart freezes as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions