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icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

$1,064,557 Vol.

May 12, 2026
Polymarket

$1,064,557 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Israel

Israel

$52,867 Vol.

Yes

icon for Estonia

Estonia

$77,510 Vol.

No

icon for Montenegro

Montenegro

$32,447 Vol.

No

icon for San Marino

San Marino

$35,020 Vol.

No

icon for Belgium

Belgium

$39,093 Vol.

Yes

icon for Finland

Finland

$394,351 Vol.

Yes

icon for Greece

Greece

$59,682 Vol.

Yes

icon for Lithuania

Lithuania

$32,279 Vol.

Yes

icon for Moldova

Moldova

$57,971 Vol.

Yes

icon for Poland

Poland

$52,349 Vol.

Yes

icon for Portugal

Portugal

$77,624 Vol.

No

icon for Sweden

Sweden

$19,701 Vol.

Yes

icon for Croatia

Croatia

$21,041 Vol.

Yes

icon for Georgia

Georgia

$47,954 Vol.

No

icon for Serbia

Serbia

$64,670 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus in the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final market reflects overwhelming confidence in frontrunners like Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's Akylas with "Ferto," Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan, and Sweden's FELICIA "My System," driven by standout dress rehearsals on May 11 that showcased dynamic staging and televote potential. Standout previews elevated Croatia's LELEK "Andromeda," Moldova's Satoshi "Viva, Moldova!," and Serbia's LAVINA "Kraj Mene" via diaspora support, while Poland and Lithuania edged tighter races amid 15 entrants' competition. Running order revealed April 2 positioned strong openers favorably; results from tonight's Vienna show at Wiener Stadthalle will confirm the 10 grand final qualifiers, who drew halves post-announcement, with the second semi-final Thursday and final Saturday.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$1,064,557
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus in the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final market reflects overwhelming confidence in frontrunners like Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen, Greece's Akylas with "Ferto," Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan, and Sweden's FELICIA "My System," driven by standout dress rehearsals on May 11 that showcased dynamic staging and televote potential. Standout previews elevated Croatia's LELEK "Andromeda," Moldova's Satoshi "Viva, Moldova!," and Serbia's LAVINA "Kraj Mene" via diaspora support, while Poland and Lithuania edged tighter races amid 15 entrants' competition. Running order revealed April 2 positioned strong openers favorably; results from tonight's Vienna show at Wiener Stadthalle will confirm the 10 grand final qualifiers, who drew halves post-announcement, with the second semi-final Thursday and final Saturday.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$1,064,557
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel" at 100%, followed by "Belgium" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is "Israel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Belgium" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.