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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?

Market icon
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?

Grégory Doucet 99.4%

Jean-Michel Aulas <1%

Alexandre Dupalais <1%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert <1%

Polymarket

$784,460 Vol.

Grégory Doucet 99.4%

Jean-Michel Aulas <1%

Alexandre Dupalais <1%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert <1%

Polymarket

$784,460 Vol.

Grégory Doucet

$402,087 Vol.

99%

Jean-Michel Aulas

$382,373 Vol.

<1%

Alexandre Dupalais

$0 Vol.

<1%

Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert

$0 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).Incumbent mayor Grégory Doucet dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win Lyon's next mayoral election, reflecting his coalition's majority control of the municipal council since the 2020 vote and high historical re-election rates for French city mayors exceeding 80%. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with opposition candidates Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction in early indicators. Scenarios that could shift odds include a unified challenger coalition forcing a competitive second-round runoff, a major scandal eroding Doucet's support, or economic pressures in Lyon prompting voter backlash before the 2026 municipal ballot.

The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
Volumen
$784,460
Fecha de finalización
Mar 22, 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 Lyon municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Lyon, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).Incumbent mayor Grégory Doucet dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win Lyon's next mayoral election, reflecting his coalition's majority control of the municipal council since the 2020 vote and high historical re-election rates for French city mayors exceeding 80%. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with opposition candidates Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction in early indicators. Scenarios that could shift odds include a unified challenger coalition forcing a competitive second-round runoff, a major scandal eroding Doucet's support, or economic pressures in Lyon prompting voter backlash before the 2026 municipal ballot.

Incumbent mayor Grégory Doucet dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability to win Lyon's next mayoral election, reflecting his coalition's majority control of the municipal council since the 2020 vote and high historical re-election rates for French city mayors exceeding 80%. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to challenge this positioning, with opposition candidates Jean-Michel Aulas, Nathalie Perrin-Gilbert, and Alexandre Dupalais showing minimal traction in early indicators. Scenarios that could shift odds include a unified challenger coalition forcing a competitive second-round runoff, a major scandal eroding Doucet's support, or economic pressures in Lyon prompting voter backlash before the 2026 municipal ballot.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Grégory Doucet" con 99%, seguido de "Jean-Michel Aulas" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" ha generado $784.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 15, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" es "Grégory Doucet" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jean-Michel Aulas" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ganará las elecciones a la alcaldía de Lyon?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.