Recent polls, including Léger's March 22 survey, show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) deadlocked at 33% in voting intentions among decided voters, yet trader consensus implies a 58% probability for PQ to secure the most National Assembly seats owing to its commanding leads in francophone regions outside Greater Montreal—41% to PLQ's 22%—under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has plummeted to 9% post-Premier François Legault's January resignation and leadership transition, enabling PQ's streak of byelection wins, including Chicoutimi in February. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have boosted francophone support, but projections highlight PQ's path to plurality or majority ahead of the October 5 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 58%
PLQ 31%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$377,924 Vol.
$377,924 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
58%
PLQ
31%
CAQ
9%
PCQ
1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 58%
PLQ 31%
CAQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$377,924 Vol.
$377,924 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$36,895 Vol.
58%
PLQ
$38,657 Vol.
31%
CAQ
$36,048 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$116,940 Vol.
1%
QS
$46,161 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$103,223 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls, including Léger's March 22 survey, show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) deadlocked at 33% in voting intentions among decided voters, yet trader consensus implies a 58% probability for PQ to secure the most National Assembly seats owing to its commanding leads in francophone regions outside Greater Montreal—41% to PLQ's 22%—under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has plummeted to 9% post-Premier François Legault's January resignation and leadership transition, enabling PQ's streak of byelection wins, including Chicoutimi in February. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have boosted francophone support, but projections highlight PQ's path to plurality or majority ahead of the October 5 deadline.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$377,924Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polls, including Léger's March 22 survey, show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) deadlocked at 33% in voting intentions among decided voters, yet trader consensus implies a 58% probability for PQ to secure the most National Assembly seats owing to its commanding leads in francophone regions outside Greater Montreal—41% to PLQ's 22%—under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has plummeted to 9% post-Premier François Legault's January resignation and leadership transition, enabling PQ's streak of byelection wins, including Chicoutimi in February. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have boosted francophone support, but projections highlight PQ's path to plurality or majority ahead of the October 5 deadline.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$377,924Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Léger's March 22 survey, show the Parti Québécois (PQ) and Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) deadlocked at 33% in voting intentions among decided voters, yet trader consensus implies a 58% probability for PQ to secure the most National Assembly seats owing to its commanding leads in francophone regions outside Greater Montreal—41% to PLQ's 22%—under Quebec's first-past-the-post system. The CAQ has plummeted to 9% post-Premier François Legault's January resignation and leadership transition, enabling PQ's streak of byelection wins, including Chicoutimi in February. PLQ gains under new leader Charles Milliard have boosted francophone support, but projections highlight PQ's path to plurality or majority ahead of the October 5 deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes