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Elecciones·Elecciones Mundiales

Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028

Market icon
Elecciones·Elecciones Mundiales

Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.7%

Polymarket

$470,816,064 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.7%

Polymarket

$470,816,064 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,122,955 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,717,146 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,301,710 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,376,109 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$2,948,966 Vol.

3%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris

$6,485,487 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,336,992 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,302,712 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,436,318 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,440,944 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,802,005 Vol.

2%

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Título del grupo: Andy Beshear

$15,002,440 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,474,693 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,753,728 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,607,245 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$3,994,905 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,065,672 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,219,090 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,626,009 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,350,161 Vol.

1%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk

$21,959,792 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,552,136 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,367,313 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$20,931,904 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,610,903 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,289,560 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,118,622 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,401,303 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,728,087 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,151,345 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,253,318 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,940,318 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,855,545 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$28,870,765 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$28,933,005 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,488,233 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim trader consensus edge at 17.8% implied probability to win the 2028 presidential election, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.2%, as recent escalation in the Iran conflict spotlights Vance's balancing act between MAGA loyalty and foreign policy restraint, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio gains at 10.3% from visible diplomatic roles including Iran negotiations. This tight race reflects early-stage uncertainty two years before primaries, with no major candidates formally declared and the 2026 midterms looming as a key test of Republican incumbency strength versus Democratic rebound potential in battleground states. Separation could emerge from midterm outcomes, Iran resolution, or high-profile endorsements, amid historical patterns where vice presidential successors face long odds without broad party consolidation.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 36 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "JD Vance" con 18%, seguido de "Gavin Newsom" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 18¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" ha generado $470.8 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 11, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028", explora los 36 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" es "JD Vance" con 18%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Gavin Newsom" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.