The collapse of Michel Barnier's government on December 4 via a no-confidence vote from both the New Popular Front and National Rally has intensified France's political deadlock following July's snap legislative elections, driving trader consensus toward opposition frontrunners in the 2027 presidential race. Jordan Bardella leads at 24.5% implied probability, buoyed by National Rally's youth appeal and consistent polling leads around 30%, while Édouard Philippe sits close at 20.5% as a centrist alternative leveraging his prior premiership amid Macron's lame-duck status. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 9.5% reflects left-wing parliamentary clout but factional splits. This tightness persists due to hung parliament dynamics and coalition negotiation failures; separation could arise from the imminent prime ministerial appointment, budget impasse risks by year-end, or fresh scandals shifting voter blocs in the two-round electoral system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPróximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Próximas elecciones presidenciales francesas
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,438,095 Vol.
$19,438,095 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

François Hollande
4%

Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau
4%

David Lisnard
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Gabriel Attal
2%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
Marine Le Pen 9%
$19,438,095 Vol.
$19,438,095 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Marine Le Pen
9%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

François Hollande
4%

Título del ítem de grupo: Raphaël Glucksmann
4%

Título del elemento de grupo: Bruno Retailleau
4%

David Lisnard
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

Gabriel Attal
2%

Título del ítem del grupo: Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Manuel Bompard
<1%

Olivier Faure
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%

Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The collapse of Michel Barnier's government on December 4 via a no-confidence vote from both the New Popular Front and National Rally has intensified France's political deadlock following July's snap legislative elections, driving trader consensus toward opposition frontrunners in the 2027 presidential race. Jordan Bardella leads at 24.5% implied probability, buoyed by National Rally's youth appeal and consistent polling leads around 30%, while Édouard Philippe sits close at 20.5% as a centrist alternative leveraging his prior premiership amid Macron's lame-duck status. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's 9.5% reflects left-wing parliamentary clout but factional splits. This tightness persists due to hung parliament dynamics and coalition negotiation failures; separation could arise from the imminent prime ministerial appointment, budget impasse risks by year-end, or fresh scandals shifting voter blocs in the two-round electoral system.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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