Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will leave office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the rapid rise of opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, which captured 30% in June 2024 European Parliament elections—its first outing—and now leads or ties Fidesz in several October national polls for the April 2026 parliamentary vote. Economic stagnation, inflation above 4%, and scandals like Orbán's pardon of aides linked to a child abuse cover-up have fueled protests and eroded Fidesz's supermajority from 2022. While Fidesz benefits from incumbency, state media control, and rural strongholds, opposition momentum, potential coalition shifts under proportional representation, and youth turnout could end Orbán's 16-year rule, with no snap election or no-confidence vote currently scheduled.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Viktor Orbán在2026年12月31日之前退出？
Viktor Orbán在2026年12月31日之前退出？
是
$56,519 交易量
$56,519 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$56,519 交易量
$56,519 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will leave office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the rapid rise of opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, which captured 30% in June 2024 European Parliament elections—its first outing—and now leads or ties Fidesz in several October national polls for the April 2026 parliamentary vote. Economic stagnation, inflation above 4%, and scandals like Orbán's pardon of aides linked to a child abuse cover-up have fueled protests and eroded Fidesz's supermajority from 2022. While Fidesz benefits from incumbency, state media control, and rural strongholds, opposition momentum, potential coalition shifts under proportional representation, and youth turnout could end Orbán's 16-year rule, with no snap election or no-confidence vote currently scheduled.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$56,519结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will leave office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the rapid rise of opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, which captured 30% in June 2024 European Parliament elections—its first outing—and now leads or ties Fidesz in several October national polls for the April 2026 parliamentary vote. Economic stagnation, inflation above 4%, and scandals like Orbán's pardon of aides linked to a child abuse cover-up have fueled protests and eroded Fidesz's supermajority from 2022. While Fidesz benefits from incumbency, state media control, and rural strongholds, opposition momentum, potential coalition shifts under proportional representation, and youth turnout could end Orbán's 16-year rule, with no snap election or no-confidence vote currently scheduled.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Viktor Orbán ceases to be Prime Minister of Hungary for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Viktor Orbán's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Viktor Orbán and the government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$56,519结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will leave office by December 31, 2026, driven primarily by the rapid rise of opposition leader Péter Magyar's Tisza Party, which captured 30% in June 2024 European Parliament elections—its first outing—and now leads or ties Fidesz in several October national polls for the April 2026 parliamentary vote. Economic stagnation, inflation above 4%, and scandals like Orbán's pardon of aides linked to a child abuse cover-up have fueled protests and eroded Fidesz's supermajority from 2022. While Fidesz benefits from incumbency, state media control, and rural strongholds, opposition momentum, potential coalition shifts under proportional representation, and youth turnout could end Orbán's 16-year rule, with no snap election or no-confidence vote currently scheduled.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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