Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 80% implied probability to win Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps. Recent polls, including one from 16 hours ago showing 52% support, signal growing momentum for the proposed map that would add Democratic strongholds like Charlottesville and Albemarle County to VA-06—currently an R+12 district held by incumbent Ben Cline (R)—potentially flipping it competitive or blue. Multiple Democratic primary contenders, led by well-funded Beth Macy, intensify the challenge, though higher early GOP turnout and ongoing lawsuits introduce uncertainty ahead of the map's potential adoption for August primaries and November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$35,282 交易量
$35,282 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
81%
共和党
13%
$35,282 交易量
$35,282 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$21,408 交易量
81%
共和党
$13,875 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 80% implied probability to win Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps. Recent polls, including one from 16 hours ago showing 52% support, signal growing momentum for the proposed map that would add Democratic strongholds like Charlottesville and Albemarle County to VA-06—currently an R+12 district held by incumbent Ben Cline (R)—potentially flipping it competitive or blue. Multiple Democratic primary contenders, led by well-funded Beth Macy, intensify the challenge, though higher early GOP turnout and ongoing lawsuits introduce uncertainty ahead of the map's potential adoption for August primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$35,282结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 80% implied probability to win Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps. Recent polls, including one from 16 hours ago showing 52% support, signal growing momentum for the proposed map that would add Democratic strongholds like Charlottesville and Albemarle County to VA-06—currently an R+12 district held by incumbent Ben Cline (R)—potentially flipping it competitive or blue. Multiple Democratic primary contenders, led by well-funded Beth Macy, intensify the challenge, though higher early GOP turnout and ongoing lawsuits introduce uncertainty ahead of the map's potential adoption for August primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,282结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 80% implied probability to win Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat in the 2026 midterms, driven primarily by the April 21 special election on a constitutional amendment allowing the Democrat-controlled General Assembly to redraw congressional maps. Recent polls, including one from 16 hours ago showing 52% support, signal growing momentum for the proposed map that would add Democratic strongholds like Charlottesville and Albemarle County to VA-06—currently an R+12 district held by incumbent Ben Cline (R)—potentially flipping it competitive or blue. Multiple Democratic primary contenders, led by well-funded Beth Macy, intensify the challenge, though higher early GOP turnout and ongoing lawsuits introduce uncertainty ahead of the map's potential adoption for August primaries and November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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