Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, reports over the past week indicate President Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade levels—but experts highlight the operation's immense logistical challenges, including fortified underground facilities and potential dispersal to sites like Isfahan following prior strikes. This skepticism drives the trader consensus implying an 82% chance it won't occur by May 31, as no concrete US military preparations or diplomatic breakthroughs have materialized despite stalled 2025-2026 nuclear talks where the US previously accepted limited Iranian enrichment. Risks of broader regional escalation further dampen near-term prospects for success.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$190,594 交易量
$190,594 交易量
2026-05-31
$190,594 交易量
$190,594 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, reports over the past week indicate President Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade levels—but experts highlight the operation's immense logistical challenges, including fortified underground facilities and potential dispersal to sites like Isfahan following prior strikes. This skepticism drives the trader consensus implying an 82% chance it won't occur by May 31, as no concrete US military preparations or diplomatic breakthroughs have materialized despite stalled 2025-2026 nuclear talks where the US previously accepted limited Iranian enrichment. Risks of broader regional escalation further dampen near-term prospects for success.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$190,594结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, reports over the past week indicate President Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade levels—but experts highlight the operation's immense logistical challenges, including fortified underground facilities and potential dispersal to sites like Isfahan following prior strikes. This skepticism drives the trader consensus implying an 82% chance it won't occur by May 31, as no concrete US military preparations or diplomatic breakthroughs have materialized despite stalled 2025-2026 nuclear talks where the US previously accepted limited Iranian enrichment. Risks of broader regional escalation further dampen near-term prospects for success.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$190,594结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, reports over the past week indicate President Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade levels—but experts highlight the operation's immense logistical challenges, including fortified underground facilities and potential dispersal to sites like Isfahan following prior strikes. This skepticism drives the trader consensus implying an 82% chance it won't occur by May 31, as no concrete US military preparations or diplomatic breakthroughs have materialized despite stalled 2025-2026 nuclear talks where the US previously accepted limited Iranian enrichment. Risks of broader regional escalation further dampen near-term prospects for success.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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