Incumbent Republican August Pfluger secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026, Texas primary for TX-11, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+24 partisan voting index, reinforcing trader consensus at 91% for the GOP in the November general election. Democrat Claire Reynolds emerged from her primary as the nominee, but the district's history of overwhelming Republican margins—Pfluger won by over 70 points in 2024—drives the lopsided odds amid low Democratic turnout and fundraising gaps. Challenges could arise from unforeseen scandals, Pfluger's health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though these remain low-probability scenarios given the structural advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$16,955 交易量
$16,955 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
91%
民主党
7%
$16,955 交易量
$16,955 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$5,770 交易量
91%
民主党
$11,185 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican August Pfluger secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026, Texas primary for TX-11, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+24 partisan voting index, reinforcing trader consensus at 91% for the GOP in the November general election. Democrat Claire Reynolds emerged from her primary as the nominee, but the district's history of overwhelming Republican margins—Pfluger won by over 70 points in 2024—drives the lopsided odds amid low Democratic turnout and fundraising gaps. Challenges could arise from unforeseen scandals, Pfluger's health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though these remain low-probability scenarios given the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$16,955结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican August Pfluger secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026, Texas primary for TX-11, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+24 partisan voting index, reinforcing trader consensus at 91% for the GOP in the November general election. Democrat Claire Reynolds emerged from her primary as the nominee, but the district's history of overwhelming Republican margins—Pfluger won by over 70 points in 2024—drives the lopsided odds amid low Democratic turnout and fundraising gaps. Challenges could arise from unforeseen scandals, Pfluger's health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though these remain low-probability scenarios given the structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,955结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican August Pfluger secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 3, 2026, Texas primary for TX-11, a district rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+24 partisan voting index, reinforcing trader consensus at 91% for the GOP in the November general election. Democrat Claire Reynolds emerged from her primary as the nominee, but the district's history of overwhelming Republican margins—Pfluger won by over 70 points in 2024—drives the lopsided odds amid low Democratic turnout and fundraising gaps. Challenges could arise from unforeseen scandals, Pfluger's health issues, or a national Democratic wave, though these remain low-probability scenarios given the structural advantages.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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