US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, command centers, and nuclear facilities, as the conflict—now in its sixth week since late February—shows no signs of de-escalation. Iranian forces downed two US aircraft on April 3, marking the first such losses and prompting Tehran to reject President Trump's infrastructure ultimatum, while strikes hit a petrochemical hub on April 4, killing five. US Central Command reports severe degradation of Iran's medium-range missiles, reducing barrages on Israel, yet retaliatory actions persist amid diplomatic stalemate. Traders weigh sustained air superiority against risks of ground escalation or proxy attacks, with analysts noting potential prolongation through late April absent a ceasefire breakthrough.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$335,851 交易量
2026-03-31
4月15日
5%
4月30日
22%
5月31日
54%
6月30日
69%
$335,851 交易量
4月15日
$36,877 交易量
5%
4月30日
$26,204 交易量
22%
5月31日
$12,997 交易量
54%
6月30日
$11,540 交易量
69%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, command centers, and nuclear facilities, as the conflict—now in its sixth week since late February—shows no signs of de-escalation. Iranian forces downed two US aircraft on April 3, marking the first such losses and prompting Tehran to reject President Trump's infrastructure ultimatum, while strikes hit a petrochemical hub on April 4, killing five. US Central Command reports severe degradation of Iran's medium-range missiles, reducing barrages on Israel, yet retaliatory actions persist amid diplomatic stalemate. Traders weigh sustained air superiority against risks of ground escalation or proxy attacks, with analysts noting potential prolongation through late April absent a ceasefire breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$335,851结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, command centers, and nuclear facilities, as the conflict—now in its sixth week since late February—shows no signs of de-escalation. Iranian forces downed two US aircraft on April 3, marking the first such losses and prompting Tehran to reject President Trump's infrastructure ultimatum, while strikes hit a petrochemical hub on April 4, killing five. US Central Command reports severe degradation of Iran's medium-range missiles, reducing barrages on Israel, yet retaliatory actions persist amid diplomatic stalemate. Traders weigh sustained air superiority against risks of ground escalation or proxy attacks, with analysts noting potential prolongation through late April absent a ceasefire breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$335,851结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites, command centers, and nuclear facilities, as the conflict—now in its sixth week since late February—shows no signs of de-escalation. Iranian forces downed two US aircraft on April 3, marking the first such losses and prompting Tehran to reject President Trump's infrastructure ultimatum, while strikes hit a petrochemical hub on April 4, killing five. US Central Command reports severe degradation of Iran's medium-range missiles, reducing barrages on Israel, yet retaliatory actions persist amid diplomatic stalemate. Traders weigh sustained air superiority against risks of ground escalation or proxy attacks, with analysts noting potential prolongation through late April absent a ceasefire breakthrough.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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