Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Khamenei # posts 2026年4月3日至4月10日？
Khamenei # posts 2026年4月3日至4月10日？
5-9 49%
<5 30%
10-14 30%
15-19 27%
最新
最新
2026-04-10
<5
30%
5-9
33%
10-14
30%
15-19
27%
20-24
15%
25-29
15%
30-34
12%
35-39
7%
40-44
7%
45-49
7%
50-54
7%
55-59
7%
60+
5%
5-9 49%
<5 30%
10-14 30%
15-19 27%
最新
最新
2026-04-10
<5
$0 交易量
30%
5-9
$2 交易量
33%
10-14
$0 交易量
30%
15-19
$0 交易量
27%
20-24
$0 交易量
15%
25-29
$0 交易量
15%
30-34
$0 交易量
12%
35-39
$31 交易量
7%
40-44
$31 交易量
7%
45-49
$31 交易量
7%
50-54
$31 交易量
7%
55-59
$31 交易量
7%
60+
$31 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
交易量
$186结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 3, 12:00 PM ET and April 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$186结束日期
2026-04-10市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent posting patterns on Ayatollah Khamenei's official @khamenei_ir X account, which shares archived statements from the martyred Leader amid ongoing Iran-US-Israel tensions, drive the tight trader consensus for April 3-10. Last week's tally (March 24-31) hit 9 posts, featuring a 5-post surge on March 30 tied to Admiral Alireza Tangsiri's martyrdom announcement, yet interspersed with multiple zero-post days, mirroring March's total of 44 amid irregular spikes. This variability keeps <5 (30%), 5-9 (33%), and 10-14 (30%) closely matched, aggregating 93% implied probability for under 15. Escalation in military actions, additional martyrdoms, or diplomatic developments could boost volume toward 10-14; sustained quiet from the Leader's office might solidify <5.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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