US-Israel strikes on Tehran and Iranian infrastructure, including oil facilities and a major bridge, continue into day 35 of the conflict, prompting fresh Iranian missile barrages at Israel, US-linked sites in Kuwait, and Gulf states as of April 3. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes and formation of an interim leadership council, Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace plan in late March, vowing retaliation amid Houthi involvement and disrupted energy routes. President Trump's escalatory rhetoric, US Marine deployments, and potential ground invasion plans underscore persistent military action, with stalled regional mediation in Pakistan and a looming UN vote on the Strait of Hormuz highlighting risks of further intensification before any ceasefire.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$12,609,287 交易量
2026-04-15
3月31日
<1%
4月15日
5%
4月7日
1%
4月30日
22%
5月15日
35%
6月30日
65%
12月31日
85%
$12,609,287 交易量
3月31日
$5,162,924 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$1,892,725 交易量
5%
4月7日
$1,009,733 交易量
1%
4月30日
$1,271,385 交易量
22%
5月15日
$1,630,915 交易量
35%
6月30日
$1,186,997 交易量
65%
12月31日
$454,693 交易量
85%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel strikes on Tehran and Iranian infrastructure, including oil facilities and a major bridge, continue into day 35 of the conflict, prompting fresh Iranian missile barrages at Israel, US-linked sites in Kuwait, and Gulf states as of April 3. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes and formation of an interim leadership council, Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace plan in late March, vowing retaliation amid Houthi involvement and disrupted energy routes. President Trump's escalatory rhetoric, US Marine deployments, and potential ground invasion plans underscore persistent military action, with stalled regional mediation in Pakistan and a looming UN vote on the Strait of Hormuz highlighting risks of further intensification before any ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 12, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
交易量
$12,609,287结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US-Israel strikes on Tehran and Iranian infrastructure, including oil facilities and a major bridge, continue into day 35 of the conflict, prompting fresh Iranian missile barrages at Israel, US-linked sites in Kuwait, and Gulf states as of April 3. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes and formation of an interim leadership council, Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace plan in late March, vowing retaliation amid Houthi involvement and disrupted energy routes. President Trump's escalatory rhetoric, US Marine deployments, and potential ground invasion plans underscore persistent military action, with stalled regional mediation in Pakistan and a looming UN vote on the Strait of Hormuz highlighting risks of further intensification before any ceasefire.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$12,609,287结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel strikes on Tehran and Iranian infrastructure, including oil facilities and a major bridge, continue into day 35 of the conflict, prompting fresh Iranian missile barrages at Israel, US-linked sites in Kuwait, and Gulf states as of April 3. Following Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes and formation of an interim leadership council, Tehran rejected a US 15-point peace plan in late March, vowing retaliation amid Houthi involvement and disrupted energy routes. President Trump's escalatory rhetoric, US Marine deployments, and potential ground invasion plans underscore persistent military action, with stalled regional mediation in Pakistan and a looming UN vote on the Strait of Hormuz highlighting risks of further intensification before any ceasefire.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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