Market icon

伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?

Market icon

伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$235,206 交易量

<1% 概率
Polymarket

$235,206 交易量

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied.

1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed.

2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met.

- According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

- In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
交易量
$235,206
结束日期
2026-01-30
市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

已提议结果: No

无争议

最终结果: No

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied.

1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed.

2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met.

- According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed.

- In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
交易量
$235,206
结束日期
2026-01-30
市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
On January 8, 2026, a nationwide and ongoing internet blackout began in Iran amid continuing protests. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the prior four-weeks maximum for six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.

已提议结果: No

无争议

最终结果: No

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?"是 Polymarket 上的一个预测市场,交易者根据自己对事件是否会发生的判断买卖"是"或"否"的份额。当前社区预测的概率为 0%("Yes")。例如,如果"是"的价格为 0¢,则市场集体认为该事件发生的概率为 0%。这些赔率会随着交易者对新动态和信息的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?"已产生 $235.2K 的总交易量(自Jan 24, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?"上交易,只需选择你认为答案是"是"还是"否"。每一方都有一个反映市场隐含概率的当前价格。输入你的金额并点击"交易"。如果你买入"是"的份额且结果为"是",每份支付 $1。如果结果为"否",你的"是"份额支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额以锁定利润或止损。

"伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?"的当前概率为 0%("Yes")。这意味着 Polymarket 社区目前认为该事件发生的概率为 0%。这些赔率基于实际交易实时更新,持续提供市场预期信号。

"伊朗在周五之前恢复了互联网接入?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。