Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index—covering most of urban Indianapolis in Marion County—and long-serving incumbent Rep. André Carson's entrenched position since 2008. Recent Federal Election Commission filings show Carson dominating fundraising over Democratic primary challengers like Destiny Wells and George Hornedo, bolstering his path through the May 5 primary. With no competitive Republican contender emerging amid the district's reliable blue voting history, traders price in minimal general election risk. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Carson scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national GOP wave akin to 2010 midterms, though such shifts remain low-probability given incumbency advantages and base rates for safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$1,862 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index—covering most of urban Indianapolis in Marion County—and long-serving incumbent Rep. André Carson's entrenched position since 2008. Recent Federal Election Commission filings show Carson dominating fundraising over Democratic primary challengers like Destiny Wells and George Hornedo, bolstering his path through the May 5 primary. With no competitive Republican contender emerging amid the district's reliable blue voting history, traders price in minimal general election risk. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Carson scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national GOP wave akin to 2010 midterms, though such shifts remain low-probability given incumbency advantages and base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$1,862结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index—covering most of urban Indianapolis in Marion County—and long-serving incumbent Rep. André Carson's entrenched position since 2008. Recent Federal Election Commission filings show Carson dominating fundraising over Democratic primary challengers like Destiny Wells and George Hornedo, bolstering his path through the May 5 primary. With no competitive Republican contender emerging amid the district's reliable blue voting history, traders price in minimal general election risk. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Carson scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national GOP wave akin to 2010 midterms, though such shifts remain low-probability given incumbency advantages and base rates for safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,862结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong D+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index—covering most of urban Indianapolis in Marion County—and long-serving incumbent Rep. André Carson's entrenched position since 2008. Recent Federal Election Commission filings show Carson dominating fundraising over Democratic primary challengers like Destiny Wells and George Hornedo, bolstering his path through the May 5 primary. With no competitive Republican contender emerging amid the district's reliable blue voting history, traders price in minimal general election risk. Scenarios to challenge this include a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Carson scandal, health issues, or an extraordinary national GOP wave akin to 2010 midterms, though such shifts remain low-probability given incumbency advantages and base rates for safe seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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