Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93% implied probability to hold the IL-02 House seat, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean (Cook PVI D+28), incumbent Delia Ramirez's dominant 2022 general election win (72%-28%) and solid March primary performance against minor challengers, and her fundraising edge over Republican nominee Guy Stacy. With no competitive polling, key endorsements from labor unions and progressive groups, and stable voter demographics in Chicago's South Side and suburbs, the market prices in minimal upset risk. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Ramirez scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or an overwhelming Republican national wave, though historical incumbency advantages in safe districts make these unlikely before the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$7,368 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93% implied probability to hold the IL-02 House seat, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean (Cook PVI D+28), incumbent Delia Ramirez's dominant 2022 general election win (72%-28%) and solid March primary performance against minor challengers, and her fundraising edge over Republican nominee Guy Stacy. With no competitive polling, key endorsements from labor unions and progressive groups, and stable voter demographics in Chicago's South Side and suburbs, the market prices in minimal upset risk. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Ramirez scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or an overwhelming Republican national wave, though historical incumbency advantages in safe districts make these unlikely before the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$7,368结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93% implied probability to hold the IL-02 House seat, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean (Cook PVI D+28), incumbent Delia Ramirez's dominant 2022 general election win (72%-28%) and solid March primary performance against minor challengers, and her fundraising edge over Republican nominee Guy Stacy. With no competitive polling, key endorsements from labor unions and progressive groups, and stable voter demographics in Chicago's South Side and suburbs, the market prices in minimal upset risk. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Ramirez scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or an overwhelming Republican national wave, though historical incumbency advantages in safe districts make these unlikely before the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,368结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93% implied probability to hold the IL-02 House seat, driven by the district's deep-blue partisan lean (Cook PVI D+28), incumbent Delia Ramirez's dominant 2022 general election win (72%-28%) and solid March primary performance against minor challengers, and her fundraising edge over Republican nominee Guy Stacy. With no competitive polling, key endorsements from labor unions and progressive groups, and stable voter demographics in Chicago's South Side and suburbs, the market prices in minimal upset risk. Scenarios that could shift odds include a Ramirez scandal, depressed Democratic turnout, or an overwhelming Republican national wave, though historical incumbency advantages in safe districts make these unlikely before the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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