Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to "No" on European Union dissolution before 2027, reflecting insurmountable structural barriers: core treaties demand unanimous member-state consent to terminate, with no such coordination amid diverse national interests. No country has triggered Article 50 since Brexit, and recent European Council commitments—such as March 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market against global turmoil—signal reinforced integration. In the past 30 days, the European Commission advanced Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve reforms, absent any exit threats or fragmentation signals. Realistic disruptions would need cascading shocks like synchronized economic crises, populist sweeps prompting multiple withdrawals, or acute geopolitical escalations fracturing unity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于欧盟在2027年之前解体？
欧盟在2027年之前解体？
是
$159,675 交易量
$159,675 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$159,675 交易量
$159,675 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to "No" on European Union dissolution before 2027, reflecting insurmountable structural barriers: core treaties demand unanimous member-state consent to terminate, with no such coordination amid diverse national interests. No country has triggered Article 50 since Brexit, and recent European Council commitments—such as March 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market against global turmoil—signal reinforced integration. In the past 30 days, the European Commission advanced Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve reforms, absent any exit threats or fragmentation signals. Realistic disruptions would need cascading shocks like synchronized economic crises, populist sweeps prompting multiple withdrawals, or acute geopolitical escalations fracturing unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$159,675结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to "No" on European Union dissolution before 2027, reflecting insurmountable structural barriers: core treaties demand unanimous member-state consent to terminate, with no such coordination amid diverse national interests. No country has triggered Article 50 since Brexit, and recent European Council commitments—such as March 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market against global turmoil—signal reinforced integration. In the past 30 days, the European Commission advanced Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve reforms, absent any exit threats or fragmentation signals. Realistic disruptions would need cascading shocks like synchronized economic crises, populist sweeps prompting multiple withdrawals, or acute geopolitical escalations fracturing unity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$159,675结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 96.3% implied probability to "No" on European Union dissolution before 2027, reflecting insurmountable structural barriers: core treaties demand unanimous member-state consent to terminate, with no such coordination amid diverse national interests. No country has triggered Article 50 since Brexit, and recent European Council commitments—such as March 2026 deadlines to strengthen the single market against global turmoil—signal reinforced integration. In the past 30 days, the European Commission advanced Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve reforms, absent any exit threats or fragmentation signals. Realistic disruptions would need cascading shocks like synchronized economic crises, populist sweeps prompting multiple withdrawals, or acute geopolitical escalations fracturing unity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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