The European Union's treaty framework, shared institutions such as the European Council and Commission, and extensive economic integration among member states anchor traders' 98.5% implied probability against dissolution before 2027. Recent stability in enlargement negotiations, coordinated policy responses on trade and security, and the absence of coordinated exit movements have reinforced continuity. Historical precedent shows the bloc absorbing shocks like Brexit through adaptation rather than collapse. Although simultaneous member withdrawals, fundamental treaty revisions, or acute fiscal crises could theoretically alter the trajectory, the procedural and economic barriers remain substantial in the current window.