**Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Rio Grande do Sul’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state.** Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data fieldwork from early September, show him at 42% against Lula’s 39% in stimulated first-round scenarios, with the gap widening in runoff simulations to 53%–42%. This positioning stems from strong consolidation of center-right and conservative support in the state behind the PL nominee, whose family maintains a durable base there despite national competition. Lula’s lower regional rejection in some metrics has not translated into a polling edge, while minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in single digits and show little momentum to overtake the top two. With the campaign in its final weeks and no major late-breaking shifts reported in the past month, market pricing treats a Flávio first-place finish in Rio Grande do Sul as the clear consensus outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 88%
卢拉 11%
兽医威尔森·格拉西 1.1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔 <1%
$22,657 交易量
$22,657 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
88%
卢拉
11%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
1%
泽马
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
<1%
克拉里亚娜·巴拉奥
<1%
赫茨·迪亚斯
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
<1%
萨马拉
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 88%
卢拉 11%
兽医威尔森·格拉西 1.1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔 <1%
$22,657 交易量
$22,657 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$7,429 交易量
88%
卢拉
$3,654 交易量
11%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
$816 交易量
1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
$1,437 交易量
1%
泽马
$1,173 交易量
1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
$1,437 交易量
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$1,532 交易量
<1%
克拉里亚娜·巴拉奥
$1,171 交易量
<1%
赫茨·迪亚斯
$493 交易量
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$858 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$640 交易量
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$641 交易量
<1%
萨马拉
$1,376 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Rio Grande do Sul’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state.** Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data fieldwork from early September, show him at 42% against Lula’s 39% in stimulated first-round scenarios, with the gap widening in runoff simulations to 53%–42%. This positioning stems from strong consolidation of center-right and conservative support in the state behind the PL nominee, whose family maintains a durable base there despite national competition. Lula’s lower regional rejection in some metrics has not translated into a polling edge, while minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in single digits and show little momentum to overtake the top two. With the campaign in its final weeks and no major late-breaking shifts reported in the past month, market pricing treats a Flávio first-place finish in Rio Grande do Sul as the clear consensus outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET
交易量
$22,657结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Rio Grande do Sul’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state.** Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data fieldwork from early September, show him at 42% against Lula’s 39% in stimulated first-round scenarios, with the gap widening in runoff simulations to 53%–42%. This positioning stems from strong consolidation of center-right and conservative support in the state behind the PL nominee, whose family maintains a durable base there despite national competition. Lula’s lower regional rejection in some metrics has not translated into a polling edge, while minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in single digits and show little momentum to overtake the top two. With the campaign in its final weeks and no major late-breaking shifts reported in the past month, market pricing treats a Flávio first-place finish in Rio Grande do Sul as the clear consensus outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$22,657结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:35 AM ET**Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds an overwhelming lead in trader pricing for first place in Rio Grande do Sul’s first-round presidential vote on October 4, reflecting consistent polling advantages in the state.** Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data fieldwork from early September, show him at 42% against Lula’s 39% in stimulated first-round scenarios, with the gap widening in runoff simulations to 53%–42%. This positioning stems from strong consolidation of center-right and conservative support in the state behind the PL nominee, whose family maintains a durable base there despite national competition. Lula’s lower regional rejection in some metrics has not translated into a polling edge, while minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema register in single digits and show little momentum to overtake the top two. With the campaign in its final weeks and no major late-breaking shifts reported in the past month, market pricing treats a Flávio first-place finish in Rio Grande do Sul as the clear consensus outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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