Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data (41% Lula vs. 33% Flávio Bolsonaro) and AtlasIntel (44.7% vs. 37.2%), show the incumbent ahead by margins outside the error range, consistent with earlier Quaest and other state polling. Pará's northern voter base has historically favored PT candidates, reinforced by Lula's incumbency advantages and local alliances. Lower-polling names such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain fragmented. Late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or national events could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited movement within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于卢拉 94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 4.8%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 2.3%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 <1%
$19,783 交易量
$19,783 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉
94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
5%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
2%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
<1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
<1%
克拉里亚娜·巴拉奥
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
<1%
萨马拉
<1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
泽马
<1%
卢拉 94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 4.8%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多 2.3%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯 <1%
$19,783 交易量
$19,783 交易量
2026-10-04
卢拉
$10,435 交易量
94%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$1,234 交易量
5%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$588 交易量
2%
赫尔茨·迪亚斯
$862 交易量
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$560 交易量
<1%
兽医威尔森·格拉西
$1,294 交易量
<1%
克拉里亚娜·巴拉奥
$668 交易量
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$690 交易量
<1%
埃德米尔松·科斯塔
$663 交易量
<1%
萨马拉
$703 交易量
<1%
作家奥古斯托·库里
$490 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$608 交易量
<1%
泽马
$989 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data (41% Lula vs. 33% Flávio Bolsonaro) and AtlasIntel (44.7% vs. 37.2%), show the incumbent ahead by margins outside the error range, consistent with earlier Quaest and other state polling. Pará's northern voter base has historically favored PT candidates, reinforced by Lula's incumbency advantages and local alliances. Lower-polling names such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain fragmented. Late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or national events could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited movement within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
交易量
$19,783结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data (41% Lula vs. 33% Flávio Bolsonaro) and AtlasIntel (44.7% vs. 37.2%), show the incumbent ahead by margins outside the error range, consistent with earlier Quaest and other state polling. Pará's northern voter base has historically favored PT candidates, reinforced by Lula's incumbency advantages and local alliances. Lower-polling names such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain fragmented. Late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or national events could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited movement within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$19,783结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETLula maintains a commanding lead in Pará for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability. Multiple September 2026 surveys, including Real Time Big Data (41% Lula vs. 33% Flávio Bolsonaro) and AtlasIntel (44.7% vs. 37.2%), show the incumbent ahead by margins outside the error range, consistent with earlier Quaest and other state polling. Pará's northern voter base has historically favored PT candidates, reinforced by Lula's incumbency advantages and local alliances. Lower-polling names such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and others remain fragmented. Late shifts in turnout, opposition consolidation, or national events could narrow the gap, though current data indicate limited movement within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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