Trader consensus prices NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 8.5%, reflecting the alliance's structural resilience amid recent strains from President Trump's sharp criticisms. Over the past two weeks, Trump warned that NATO's future is at risk if European allies refuse to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US-Iran tensions, including Iranian naval blockades, prompting a brief spike in dissolution odds on prediction markets. However, no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one-year notice, and full disbandment demands unanimous consent among 32 nations. NATO continues operations, including recent multinational capability initiatives and arms control talks, underscoring enduring transatlantic commitments despite rhetorical pressure. Late-breaking US policy shifts or broader geopolitical ruptures could still move odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$55,493 交易量
$55,493 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$55,493 交易量
$55,493 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 8.5%, reflecting the alliance's structural resilience amid recent strains from President Trump's sharp criticisms. Over the past two weeks, Trump warned that NATO's future is at risk if European allies refuse to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US-Iran tensions, including Iranian naval blockades, prompting a brief spike in dissolution odds on prediction markets. However, no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one-year notice, and full disbandment demands unanimous consent among 32 nations. NATO continues operations, including recent multinational capability initiatives and arms control talks, underscoring enduring transatlantic commitments despite rhetorical pressure. Late-breaking US policy shifts or broader geopolitical ruptures could still move odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
交易量
$55,493结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 8.5%, reflecting the alliance's structural resilience amid recent strains from President Trump's sharp criticisms. Over the past two weeks, Trump warned that NATO's future is at risk if European allies refuse to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US-Iran tensions, including Iranian naval blockades, prompting a brief spike in dissolution odds on prediction markets. However, no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one-year notice, and full disbandment demands unanimous consent among 32 nations. NATO continues operations, including recent multinational capability initiatives and arms control talks, underscoring enduring transatlantic commitments despite rhetorical pressure. Late-breaking US policy shifts or broader geopolitical ruptures could still move odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$55,493结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 8.5%, reflecting the alliance's structural resilience amid recent strains from President Trump's sharp criticisms. Over the past two weeks, Trump warned that NATO's future is at risk if European allies refuse to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US-Iran tensions, including Iranian naval blockades, prompting a brief spike in dissolution odds on prediction markets. However, no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one-year notice, and full disbandment demands unanimous consent among 32 nations. NATO continues operations, including recent multinational capability initiatives and arms control talks, underscoring enduring transatlantic commitments despite rhetorical pressure. Late-breaking US policy shifts or broader geopolitical ruptures could still move odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
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