Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 93.5% for any country withdrawing from the EU before 2027, reflecting the absence of credible procedural steps like Article 50 invocations or exit referendums amid high economic and political barriers post-Brexit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán explicitly stated in January 2026 that Hungary will not leave, predicting EU internal challenges instead. Recent March rumors of Polish "Polexit" were swiftly debunked by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and fact-checks confirming no legal moves underway. Eurosceptic pushes in Hungary, Netherlands, and Poland focus on opt-outs from specific policies like asylum rules, not full withdrawal. Hungary's April parliamentary elections loom as a potential flashpoint, though Fidesz shows no exit agenda; late scandals or snap referendums could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是否有国家在2027年之前退出欧盟？
是
$107,954 交易量
$107,954 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$107,954 交易量
$107,954 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 93.5% for any country withdrawing from the EU before 2027, reflecting the absence of credible procedural steps like Article 50 invocations or exit referendums amid high economic and political barriers post-Brexit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán explicitly stated in January 2026 that Hungary will not leave, predicting EU internal challenges instead. Recent March rumors of Polish "Polexit" were swiftly debunked by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and fact-checks confirming no legal moves underway. Eurosceptic pushes in Hungary, Netherlands, and Poland focus on opt-outs from specific policies like asylum rules, not full withdrawal. Hungary's April parliamentary elections loom as a potential flashpoint, though Fidesz shows no exit agenda; late scandals or snap referendums could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$107,954结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 93.5% for any country withdrawing from the EU before 2027, reflecting the absence of credible procedural steps like Article 50 invocations or exit referendums amid high economic and political barriers post-Brexit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán explicitly stated in January 2026 that Hungary will not leave, predicting EU internal challenges instead. Recent March rumors of Polish "Polexit" were swiftly debunked by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and fact-checks confirming no legal moves underway. Eurosceptic pushes in Hungary, Netherlands, and Poland focus on opt-outs from specific policies like asylum rules, not full withdrawal. Hungary's April parliamentary elections loom as a potential flashpoint, though Fidesz shows no exit agenda; late scandals or snap referendums could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$107,954结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 93.5% for any country withdrawing from the EU before 2027, reflecting the absence of credible procedural steps like Article 50 invocations or exit referendums amid high economic and political barriers post-Brexit. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán explicitly stated in January 2026 that Hungary will not leave, predicting EU internal challenges instead. Recent March rumors of Polish "Polexit" were swiftly debunked by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and fact-checks confirming no legal moves underway. Eurosceptic pushes in Hungary, Netherlands, and Poland focus on opt-outs from specific policies like asylum rules, not full withdrawal. Hungary's April parliamentary elections loom as a potential flashpoint, though Fidesz shows no exit agenda; late scandals or snap referendums could shift odds, but structural hurdles dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题