Ciro Gomes has established a clear lead in recent first-round polling for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, prompting traders to price him as the frontrunner. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys from April and May show him at 41–47 percent against incumbent Elmano de Freitas at around 32 percent, reflecting Ciro’s prior term as governor, broad name recognition, and alliances with the PSDB and local centrist groups. His formal pre-candidacy launch on May 16 further consolidated support ahead of the August campaign start. Elmano’s position as the Workers’ Party incumbent has not translated into a polling edge, while lower-probability options such as Eduardo Girão and Camilo Santana register minimal support in the same surveys. Traders view these patterns as the dominant driver of current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ciro Gomes 72%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 4.2%
Eduardo Girão 1.7%
$56,648 交易量
$56,648 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
72%
Elmano de Freitas
25%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
4%
Eduardo Girão
2%
Capitão Wagner
1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Ciro Gomes 72%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
卡米洛·桑塔纳 4.2%
Eduardo Girão 1.7%
$56,648 交易量
$56,648 交易量
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
$37,077 交易量
72%
Elmano de Freitas
$6,408 交易量
25%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$3,356 交易量
4%
Eduardo Girão
$3,368 交易量
2%
Capitão Wagner
$4,372 交易量
1%
Roberto Cláudio
$2,068 交易量
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes has established a clear lead in recent first-round polling for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, prompting traders to price him as the frontrunner. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys from April and May show him at 41–47 percent against incumbent Elmano de Freitas at around 32 percent, reflecting Ciro’s prior term as governor, broad name recognition, and alliances with the PSDB and local centrist groups. His formal pre-candidacy launch on May 16 further consolidated support ahead of the August campaign start. Elmano’s position as the Workers’ Party incumbent has not translated into a polling edge, while lower-probability options such as Eduardo Girão and Camilo Santana register minimal support in the same surveys. Traders view these patterns as the dominant driver of current implied probabilities.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$56,648结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes has established a clear lead in recent first-round polling for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, prompting traders to price him as the frontrunner. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys from April and May show him at 41–47 percent against incumbent Elmano de Freitas at around 32 percent, reflecting Ciro’s prior term as governor, broad name recognition, and alliances with the PSDB and local centrist groups. His formal pre-candidacy launch on May 16 further consolidated support ahead of the August campaign start. Elmano’s position as the Workers’ Party incumbent has not translated into a polling edge, while lower-probability options such as Eduardo Girão and Camilo Santana register minimal support in the same surveys. Traders view these patterns as the dominant driver of current implied probabilities.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$56,648结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes has established a clear lead in recent first-round polling for the October 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, prompting traders to price him as the frontrunner. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys from April and May show him at 41–47 percent against incumbent Elmano de Freitas at around 32 percent, reflecting Ciro’s prior term as governor, broad name recognition, and alliances with the PSDB and local centrist groups. His formal pre-candidacy launch on May 16 further consolidated support ahead of the August campaign start. Elmano’s position as the Workers’ Party incumbent has not translated into a polling edge, while lower-probability options such as Eduardo Girão and Camilo Santana register minimal support in the same surveys. Traders view these patterns as the dominant driver of current implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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