Ciro Gomes leads trader consensus at 50% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by recent polls like Datafolha (March 23) showing him at 47% in first-round voting intentions against incumbent Elmano de Freitas' 32%, and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Ciro at 46.6%. As former governor, Ciro benefits from strong name recognition, family ties including Senator Cid Gomes, and opposition consolidation around his PSDB candidacy. Mixed surveys, such as Instituto Opinião (early April) giving Elmano 50% with Lula backing, highlight runoff competitiveness, while high crime rates challenge the PT incumbent. Ciro's mid-May decision on a presidential bid versus state focus adds uncertainty ahead of registration deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ciro Gomes 50%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
Eduardo Girão 9.1%
Roberto Cláudio 8.8%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
50%
Elmano de Freitas
25%
Eduardo Girão
9%
Roberto Cláudio
9%
Capitão Wagner
13%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
3%
Ciro Gomes 50%
Elmano de Freitas 25%
Eduardo Girão 9.1%
Roberto Cláudio 8.8%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Ciro Gomes
$3,454 交易量
50%
Elmano de Freitas
$545 交易量
25%
Eduardo Girão
$388 交易量
9%
Roberto Cláudio
$388 交易量
9%
Capitão Wagner
$855 交易量
13%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$260 交易量
3%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads trader consensus at 50% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by recent polls like Datafolha (March 23) showing him at 47% in first-round voting intentions against incumbent Elmano de Freitas' 32%, and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Ciro at 46.6%. As former governor, Ciro benefits from strong name recognition, family ties including Senator Cid Gomes, and opposition consolidation around his PSDB candidacy. Mixed surveys, such as Instituto Opinião (early April) giving Elmano 50% with Lula backing, highlight runoff competitiveness, while high crime rates challenge the PT incumbent. Ciro's mid-May decision on a presidential bid versus state focus adds uncertainty ahead of registration deadlines.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$5,890结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads trader consensus at 50% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by recent polls like Datafolha (March 23) showing him at 47% in first-round voting intentions against incumbent Elmano de Freitas' 32%, and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Ciro at 46.6%. As former governor, Ciro benefits from strong name recognition, family ties including Senator Cid Gomes, and opposition consolidation around his PSDB candidacy. Mixed surveys, such as Instituto Opinião (early April) giving Elmano 50% with Lula backing, highlight runoff competitiveness, while high crime rates challenge the PT incumbent. Ciro's mid-May decision on a presidential bid versus state focus adds uncertainty ahead of registration deadlines.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$5,890结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes leads trader consensus at 50% implied probability for the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by recent polls like Datafolha (March 23) showing him at 47% in first-round voting intentions against incumbent Elmano de Freitas' 32%, and Paraná Pesquisas (late March) with Ciro at 46.6%. As former governor, Ciro benefits from strong name recognition, family ties including Senator Cid Gomes, and opposition consolidation around his PSDB candidacy. Mixed surveys, such as Instituto Opinião (early April) giving Elmano 50% with Lula backing, highlight runoff competitiveness, while high crime rates challenge the PT incumbent. Ciro's mid-May decision on a presidential bid versus state focus adds uncertainty ahead of registration deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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