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icon for Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
选举·罗马尼亚

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

icon for Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?
选举·罗马尼亚

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD + PNL 41%

PNL + UDMR 34.7%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 6.2%

UDMR 5.5%

Polymarket

$13,131 交易量

PSD + PNL 41%

PNL + UDMR 34.7%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR 6.2%

UDMR 5.5%

Polymarket

$13,131 交易量

PSD + PNL

$118 交易量

41%

PNL + UDMR

$163 交易量

35%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR

$305 交易量

20%

UDMR

$2,026 交易量

6%

USR

$1,682 交易量

4%

PNL

$252 交易量

22%

PSD + USR + UDMR

$440 交易量

2%

PNL + AUR

$422 交易量

2%

AUR

$504 交易量

2%

PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR

$351 交易量

2%

PSD + PNL + AUR

$87 交易量

1%

USR + AUR

$649 交易量

1%

PNL + UDMR + AUR

$475 交易量

1%

PNL + USR + AUR

$303 交易量

1%

PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR

$366 交易量

1%

PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR

$371 交易量

1%

PSD + USR + AUR

$302 交易量

1%

UDMR + AUR

$497 交易量

1%

USR + UDMR + AUR

$560 交易量

<1%

PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR

$324 交易量

21%

PSD + UDMR

$61 交易量

37%

PNL + USR

$145 交易量

39%

PSD + PNL + USR

$30 交易量

37%

PNL + USR + UDMR

$318 交易量

41%

Other

$463 交易量

37%

PSD

$56 交易量

38%

PSD + USR

$461 交易量

38%

PSD + AUR

$152 交易量

41%

USR + UDMR

$408 交易量

35%

PSD + PNL + UDMR

$89 交易量

40%

PSD + UDMR + AUR

$374 交易量

30%

PSD + PNL + USR + AUR

$381 交易量

37%

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The collapse of Romania’s four-party pro-European coalition in May 2026 has left multiple coalition paths viable and closely matched in trader pricing. After PSD ministers resigned in April over fiscal reforms and joined AUR to pass a no-confidence motion against PNL Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on 5 May, the Bolojan cabinet entered caretaker status. PNL and USR have since ruled out renewed partnership with PSD, while PSD explores options with AUR or others; President Nicușor Dan continues talks aimed at restoring a parliamentary majority before scheduled elections. These hardened positions, combined with the need for 233 votes in the 464-seat parliament and the tactical leverage of minority or externally supported cabinets, sustain tight implied probabilities across PSD-inclusive and exclusionary combinations. Any breakthrough in negotiations or further parliamentary maneuvers could quickly shift the balance among the leading scenarios.

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.

A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.

If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$13,131
结束日期
2026-05-31
市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The collapse of Romania’s four-party pro-European coalition in May 2026 has left multiple coalition paths viable and closely matched in trader pricing. After PSD ministers resigned in April over fiscal reforms and joined AUR to pass a no-confidence motion against PNL Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan on 5 May, the Bolojan cabinet entered caretaker status. PNL and USR have since ruled out renewed partnership with PSD, while PSD explores options with AUR or others; President Nicușor Dan continues talks aimed at restoring a parliamentary majority before scheduled elections. These hardened positions, combined with the need for 233 votes in the 464-seat parliament and the tactical leverage of minority or externally supported cabinets, sustain tight implied probabilities across PSD-inclusive and exclusionary combinations. Any breakthrough in negotiations or further parliamentary maneuvers could quickly shift the balance among the leading scenarios.

This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.

A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.

If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
交易量
$13,131
结束日期
2026-05-31
市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 32 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"PSD + PNL"，概率为 41%，其次是"PNL + USR + UDMR"，概率为 41%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 41¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 41%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?"已产生 $13.1K 的总交易量（自May 11, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 32 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?"的当前领先者是"PSD + PNL"，概率为 41%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 41%。紧随其后的结果是"PNL + USR + UDMR"，概率为 41%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。