Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic hold, fueled by her dominant fundraising—over $524,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus Republican Mike Cargile's $2,600—following the March 6 filing deadline. With other GOP challengers withdrawn, Cargile, who lost to Torres in 2024, advances as the likely general election foe under California's top-two primary system on June 2. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce this, despite the Inland Empire district's rightward 2024 swing among Latino voters. Upsets could arise from scandals, Torres' health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$11,162 交易量
$11,162 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
6%
$11,162 交易量
$11,162 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,785 交易量
93%
共和党
$4,377 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic hold, fueled by her dominant fundraising—over $524,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus Republican Mike Cargile's $2,600—following the March 6 filing deadline. With other GOP challengers withdrawn, Cargile, who lost to Torres in 2024, advances as the likely general election foe under California's top-two primary system on June 2. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce this, despite the Inland Empire district's rightward 2024 swing among Latino voters. Upsets could arise from scandals, Torres' health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$11,162结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic hold, fueled by her dominant fundraising—over $524,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus Republican Mike Cargile's $2,600—following the March 6 filing deadline. With other GOP challengers withdrawn, Cargile, who lost to Torres in 2024, advances as the likely general election foe under California's top-two primary system on June 2. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce this, despite the Inland Empire district's rightward 2024 swing among Latino voters. Upsets could arise from scandals, Torres' health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,162结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres' commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District drives trader consensus at 92.5% for a Democratic hold, fueled by her dominant fundraising—over $524,000 cash on hand as of late 2025 versus Republican Mike Cargile's $2,600—following the March 6 filing deadline. With other GOP challengers withdrawn, Cargile, who lost to Torres in 2024, advances as the likely general election foe under California's top-two primary system on June 2. Ratings from Cook Political Report (Solid Democratic), Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball reinforce this, despite the Inland Empire district's rightward 2024 swing among Latino voters. Upsets could arise from scandals, Torres' health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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