Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar holds a commanding position in California's 33rd congressional district, which carries a strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration advantage that shapes the current trader consensus. As House Minority Whip with a decade of incumbency and substantial campaign resources, Aguilar faces limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and the November general election. Recent filings show Republican challengers including Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas, but the district's established voting patterns and lack of competitive polling or major political shifts sustain the implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Scenarios that could alter the race remain narrow, such as an unforeseen primary upset or significant late developments affecting turnout in this Inland Empire seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,772 交易量
93%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar holds a commanding position in California's 33rd congressional district, which carries a strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration advantage that shapes the current trader consensus. As House Minority Whip with a decade of incumbency and substantial campaign resources, Aguilar faces limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and the November general election. Recent filings show Republican challengers including Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas, but the district's established voting patterns and lack of competitive polling or major political shifts sustain the implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Scenarios that could alter the race remain narrow, such as an unforeseen primary upset or significant late developments affecting turnout in this Inland Empire seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$2,772结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar holds a commanding position in California's 33rd congressional district, which carries a strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration advantage that shapes the current trader consensus. As House Minority Whip with a decade of incumbency and substantial campaign resources, Aguilar faces limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and the November general election. Recent filings show Republican challengers including Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas, but the district's established voting patterns and lack of competitive polling or major political shifts sustain the implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Scenarios that could alter the race remain narrow, such as an unforeseen primary upset or significant late developments affecting turnout in this Inland Empire seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,772结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar holds a commanding position in California's 33rd congressional district, which carries a strong Democratic partisan lean and voter registration advantage that shapes the current trader consensus. As House Minority Whip with a decade of incumbency and substantial campaign resources, Aguilar faces limited primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary and the November general election. Recent filings show Republican challengers including Tom Herman and Stephanie Vargas, but the district's established voting patterns and lack of competitive polling or major political shifts sustain the implied probability for a Democratic outcome. Scenarios that could alter the race remain narrow, such as an unforeseen primary upset or significant late developments affecting turnout in this Inland Empire seat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题