California's 14th Congressional District, an open seat after Rep. Eric Swalwell's bid for governor, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability, reflecting its deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and historical general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats in 2022 and 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features five Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab and Rakhi Israni against two Republicans, positioning the party to advance both finalists and secure victory in November. Recent candidate filings post-March deadline and Israni's past donations to Republicans have drawn scrutiny but not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary surge or disqualifying Democratic scandals, though structural advantages make these low-probability events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$16,369 交易量
$16,369 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
$16,369 交易量
$16,369 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,287 交易量
93%
共和党
$14,082 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, an open seat after Rep. Eric Swalwell's bid for governor, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability, reflecting its deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and historical general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats in 2022 and 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features five Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab and Rakhi Israni against two Republicans, positioning the party to advance both finalists and secure victory in November. Recent candidate filings post-March deadline and Israni's past donations to Republicans have drawn scrutiny but not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary surge or disqualifying Democratic scandals, though structural advantages make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$16,369结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, an open seat after Rep. Eric Swalwell's bid for governor, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability, reflecting its deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and historical general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats in 2022 and 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features five Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab and Rakhi Israni against two Republicans, positioning the party to advance both finalists and secure victory in November. Recent candidate filings post-March deadline and Israni's past donations to Republicans have drawn scrutiny but not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary surge or disqualifying Democratic scandals, though structural advantages make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$16,369结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District, an open seat after Rep. Eric Swalwell's bid for governor, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 93% implied probability, reflecting its deep-blue partisan lean—Cook PVI D+19—and historical general election margins exceeding 65% for Democrats in 2022 and 2024. The June 2 top-two primary features five Democratic contenders including Aisha Wahab and Rakhi Israni against two Republicans, positioning the party to advance both finalists and secure victory in November. Recent candidate filings post-March deadline and Israni's past donations to Republicans have drawn scrutiny but not shifted dynamics. Realistic challenges include a GOP primary surge or disqualifying Democratic scandals, though structural advantages make these low-probability events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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