Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 61.5% to hold Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+7 partisan voting index, incumbent Eli Crane's 9-point 2024 reelection win over Jonathan Nez, and Crane's dominant fundraising lead with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Nez's $649,000 as of late 2025. Democratic efforts to flip the seat gained traction with Nez's inclusion on the DCCC's Red to Blue list in February and recent grassroots mobilization calls, but forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican amid a competitive Democratic primary against Eric Descheenie set for July 21. No public polls have surfaced yet, underscoring Crane's incumbency edge in this rural northeastern district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
62%
民主党
31%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$0 交易量
62%
民主党
$165 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 61.5% to hold Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+7 partisan voting index, incumbent Eli Crane's 9-point 2024 reelection win over Jonathan Nez, and Crane's dominant fundraising lead with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Nez's $649,000 as of late 2025. Democratic efforts to flip the seat gained traction with Nez's inclusion on the DCCC's Red to Blue list in February and recent grassroots mobilization calls, but forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican amid a competitive Democratic primary against Eric Descheenie set for July 21. No public polls have surfaced yet, underscoring Crane's incumbency edge in this rural northeastern district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
交易量
$165结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 61.5% to hold Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+7 partisan voting index, incumbent Eli Crane's 9-point 2024 reelection win over Jonathan Nez, and Crane's dominant fundraising lead with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Nez's $649,000 as of late 2025. Democratic efforts to flip the seat gained traction with Nez's inclusion on the DCCC's Red to Blue list in February and recent grassroots mobilization calls, but forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican amid a competitive Democratic primary against Eric Descheenie set for July 21. No public polls have surfaced yet, underscoring Crane's incumbency edge in this rural northeastern district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$165结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Republican Party at 61.5% to hold Arizona's 2nd Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's R+7 partisan voting index, incumbent Eli Crane's 9-point 2024 reelection win over Jonathan Nez, and Crane's dominant fundraising lead with $2.4 million cash on hand versus Nez's $649,000 as of late 2025. Democratic efforts to flip the seat gained traction with Nez's inclusion on the DCCC's Red to Blue list in February and recent grassroots mobilization calls, but forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Likely Republican amid a competitive Democratic primary against Eric Descheenie set for July 21. No public polls have surfaced yet, underscoring Crane's incumbency edge in this rural northeastern district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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