Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability of House impeachment articles passing against President Trump before his January 2029 term ends, driven primarily by the Republican narrow House majority (projected 220-215) and deepening intraparty divisions. Recent cabinet nomination withdrawals, including Matt Gaetz's abrupt exit from Attorney General consideration on November 22 amid an ethics probe, alongside controversies over Pete Hegseth and others, have exposed GOP fractures that could enable a handful of defections. Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries have signaled intent to pursue impeachment over anticipated executive actions on mass deportations and birthright citizenship challenges. The January 3 Speaker election, with Mike Johnson facing Freedom Caucus opposition, looms as a key risk factor amid historical precedents of Trump's prior impeachments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
$10,933 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 62.5% implied probability of House impeachment articles passing against President Trump before his January 2029 term ends, driven primarily by the Republican narrow House majority (projected 220-215) and deepening intraparty divisions. Recent cabinet nomination withdrawals, including Matt Gaetz's abrupt exit from Attorney General consideration on November 22 amid an ethics probe, alongside controversies over Pete Hegseth and others, have exposed GOP fractures that could enable a handful of defections. Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries have signaled intent to pursue impeachment over anticipated executive actions on mass deportations and birthright citizenship challenges. The January 3 Speaker election, with Mike Johnson facing Freedom Caucus opposition, looms as a key risk factor amid historical precedents of Trump's prior impeachments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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