Polymarket traders price a 96.8% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 decision amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts in the dot plot—now at 2.7%—and modest growth projections for just one 25 basis point cut later this year underscore the Fed's cautious stance despite softer February nonfarm payrolls of -92,000. Upcoming March jobs data on April 3 and CPI on April 10 could challenge this positioning if they reveal hotter inflation or resilient labor markets, potentially spurring rate hike bets now at 1.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.8%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,654,167 Vol.
$37,654,167 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.8%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,654,167 Vol.
$37,654,167 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$13,217,329 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,680,599 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,806,503 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,951,614 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96.8% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 decision amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts in the dot plot—now at 2.7%—and modest growth projections for just one 25 basis point cut later this year underscore the Fed's cautious stance despite softer February nonfarm payrolls of -92,000. Upcoming March jobs data on April 3 and CPI on April 10 could challenge this positioning if they reveal hotter inflation or resilient labor markets, potentially spurring rate hike bets now at 1.8%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$37,654,167End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96.8% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 decision amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts in the dot plot—now at 2.7%—and modest growth projections for just one 25 basis point cut later this year underscore the Fed's cautious stance despite softer February nonfarm payrolls of -92,000. Upcoming March jobs data on April 3 and CPI on April 10 could challenge this positioning if they reveal hotter inflation or resilient labor markets, potentially spurring rate hike bets now at 1.8%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$37,654,167End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 96.8% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 decision amid sticky inflation and geopolitical uncertainty from the Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts in the dot plot—now at 2.7%—and modest growth projections for just one 25 basis point cut later this year underscore the Fed's cautious stance despite softer February nonfarm payrolls of -92,000. Upcoming March jobs data on April 3 and CPI on April 10 could challenge this positioning if they reveal hotter inflation or resilient labor markets, potentially spurring rate hike bets now at 1.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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