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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

2 85%

3 10.4%

4 1.7%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$203,262 Vol.

2 85%

3 10.4%

4 1.7%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$203,262 Vol.

2

$35,178 Vol.

85%

3

$18,184 Vol.

10%

4

$15,519 Vol.

2%

5

$18,872 Vol.

1%

>5

$43,609 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85% implied probability to exactly two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 23-29, driven by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirmation of precisely that number so far: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28, per USGS real-time catalogs, amid subdued global seismic activity without notable swarms or aftershock sequences escalating to threshold. Historical USGS data indicates an average of 1-2 such quakes weekly under Poisson-distributed patterns, yielding low odds (~11% combined for 3+) for another before March 29 cutoff, though inherent tectonic unpredictability persists; monitor USGS updates for final tallies.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85% implied probability to exactly two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 23-29, driven by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirmation of precisely that number so far: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28, per USGS real-time catalogs, amid subdued global seismic activity without notable swarms or aftershock sequences escalating to threshold. Historical USGS data indicates an average of 1-2 such quakes weekly under Poisson-distributed patterns, yielding low odds (~11% combined for 3+) for another before March 29 cutoff, though inherent tectonic unpredictability persists; monitor USGS updates for final tallies.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 23, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85% implied probability to exactly two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 23-29, driven by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirmation of precisely that number so far: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28, per USGS real-time catalogs, amid subdued global seismic activity without notable swarms or aftershock sequences escalating to threshold. Historical USGS data indicates an average of 1-2 such quakes weekly under Poisson-distributed patterns, yielding low odds (~11% combined for 3+) for another before March 29 cutoff, though inherent tectonic unpredictability persists; monitor USGS updates for final tallies.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85% implied probability to exactly two magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 23-29, driven by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) confirmation of precisely that number so far: a M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga on March 24, and a M6.5 quake 122 km east of Yamada, Japan on March 26. No additional M6.5+ events have occurred through March 28, per USGS real-time catalogs, amid subdued global seismic activity without notable swarms or aftershock sequences escalating to threshold. Historical USGS data indicates an average of 1-2 such quakes weekly under Poisson-distributed patterns, yielding low odds (~11% combined for 3+) for another before March 29 cutoff, though inherent tectonic unpredictability persists; monitor USGS updates for final tallies.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 85%, followed by "3" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" has generated $203.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" is "2" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.